by defensewinsgames » Wed Mar 24, 2021 10:08 am
This is just my perspective so maybe I'm wrong (I am not and never have been a college coach). I think for a lot of these division two schools on up to division one it comes down to how they view upside and risk. I believe the thinking goes like this:
I'm a college coach and I need a few guys to round out the end of my bench and potentially develop into something that contributes in two or three years. I can pick the class b North Dakota kids who are hard working, local, and have basketball skills but they are athletically limited for this level, many are multiple sports athletes who haven't focused only on basketball, and many haven't played against top level competition - maybe they end up as the 5th starter or a bench piece down the road or I hit it big on one who really contributes. On the other hand I can recruit someone out of state who is more athletically gifted, has played top level competition out of state, opens a pipeline into a new school or region I can come back to later - if they pay off they will be a top two or three player on my team and if not maybe the risk is they leave after a year or two. I as a coach can try and teach the athletic kid to shoot, dribble, and pass but I can't teach the other kid how to be more athletically gifted, taller, or longer. It's the same reason in that level of basketball (and football for that matter) the huge kids seem to always get a chance - you can't teach size! Some coaches pick the ND kid knowing what it means to the state, community, and school. They bank on them being a great culture piece that will contribute in ways not on seen on the court as well. Other coaches want the wild card who has a bigger potential payout and are willing to deal with what comes with that.
I look at it a lot like investing because that is what these coaches are doing - they are investing in their future and only have a couple of years to prove they are the guy to lead the program before patience runs out and they are replaced. Some people invest in stocks because there is a huge potential for return and they are willing to accept the risk. Others invest in bonds or savings accounts because they want safety and stability so are ok with smaller returns. If the stock goes crazy the guy with stocks looks like the genius, if the stock goes belly up the guy with the savings account seems smart. Neither guy was "right."