East playoff scenarios:
In with seed:
Fargo Shanley--in as #1
Lisbon--in as #2
In:
Grafton--in. #3 with a win over Shanley or a Valley City loss to Wahpeton. #4 with a loss to Shanley and Valley City win over Wahpeton
Control:
Valley City--in with a win over Wahpeton. #4 with a win and a Grafton win over Shanley. #3 with a win and a Shanley win over Grafton.
Needs help:
Central Cass--in with a win over Oak Grove a Wahpeton win over Valley City.
Wahpeton--in with a win over Valley City and an Oak Grove win over Central Cass
Randon thoughts about AA:
In general, this is a matchup division. Shanley is in an elite class, and there are a few teams that are struggling, but the body of teams will win and lose depending on matchups and performance.
That being said, Lisbon has shown the ability to win the big game this season, knocking off good Central Cass, Grafton, and Valley City teams. Devils Lake is probably just as good, but their body of work is perhaps an eyelash short of Lisbon with their loss at Trinity.
Trinity, Carrington, Valley City, Central Cass, and St. Marys and Grafton are in the next tier. Trinity very inconsistent, and seems to make a case for themselves on their win over Devils Lake. A struggle with TMCHS and getting pummelled for a half at home by Carrington doesn't impress.
Valley City won the two games they should have, one that was a toss-up, one over an injury-ridden Grafton team, and lost a game they should likely have won at home against Central Cass. They can take put on some separation from this group with a playoff-clinching win over Wahpeton, but they have not yet won a home game this year.
Central Cass is a real mystery. They were in the second tier till last night. Kindred is better than many give them credit for, but that was a game Central Cass had to have, especially after their big win over Valley City a week before.
Carrington is a quality team, but they need to finish games. Could have had Valley City in week two. Couldn't put Trinity away in Dickinson. A win over Devils Lake, and they become scary. Gotta show some balance offensively. A running game can beat a lot of teams. Their running game is not good enough to win the state title.
St. Mary's and Grafton belong in the second tier, but with the key injuries they have suffered, we will have to see how they respond. They are in the third tier till they win another solid game.
I hope next year's pollsters keep in mind that Grafton and Kindred are programs on the rise. Good coaching, a core of juniors, with Grafton returning 10 offensive starters. If he chooses to, Jake Hanson will play quarterback on Saturdays, and I'll take Adam J. on my college team in the former DAC or perhaps DII any day. Give Kindred a lot of credit for playing through those key suspensions on every snap this year. The east should have been a seven-horse race.
Devils Lake belongs at AA. The state is making a mistake taking them up a class. Yes, they have played for a state title twice in three years. They may again this year. But in year two they were ousted in the first round of the playoffs, with two teams that are now 1-A moving on. Their lone loss this season is to a team that opts up to AA.
Finally, AA is better than A. Sure, the top teams in AA could compete well in A. At the AA level, you need to be more balanced. The defensive athleticism at the AA level is better than the A level on average. Not at the top, perhaps, but on average. You can win a lot of games at A just running teams into the ground. You have to be very good at it at this level. There is no killing teams with an I formation at the AA level. You need some option, some screens. I've seen a lot of A titles won by 17 play drives that just involve a fullback and tailback. That just is not a recipe for success at the AA level.