4-Class Proposal

[heimer]

DPI numbers are interesting to look at. I went to check them when someone on the three-class thread mentioned Jamestown approaching the middle division with future enrollments.

First, on that: Yes, the current 5th-8th grade at Jamestown is at 631. The current 4th-7th grade is at 604. 3rd-6th 616, 2nd-5th 618, 1st-4th 604, and K-3rd 601. Those numbers are below the 650 threshold.

That being said, Jamestown has a private school that would feed into the number when they reach the classification age. The current information is that they have 190 students enrolled K-6, about 27 a class. So, it is very unlikely Jamestown would drop below 650 at any time for the next 10 years.

Then I started looking at the class sizes in all the schools at the kindergarden level. I thought I'd draw up a little plan to pivot to. I'm sure everyone will hate it.

Just the kindergarden class, AAA, 600 Kindergardeners in the district (example: West Fargo has the largest Kindergarden class in the state, with 1103 kindergardeners. They would, of course, eventually be spread around all three high schools) and up, all schools in that district are in this class:

Bismarck
Bismarck Century
Bismarck Legacy
West Fargo
West Fargo Sheyenne
West Fargo Horace
Fargo South
Fargo North
Fargo Davies
Minot
Minot North
Fargo Shanley---opt up
Bismarck St. Marys---opt up

80-499 kindergardeners

Williston
Mandan
Devils Lake
Wahpeton
Belcourt
Dickinson
Jamestown
Watford City
Grand Forks Central
Grand Forks Red River

45-79 kindergardeners (if you're in a AAA district, you auto opt up to this level)

Valley City
Kindred
Central Cass
Northern Cass
Killdeer
Carrington
Thompson
Beulah
Des Lacs-Burlington
Nedrose
New Town
Stanley
Grafton
Tioga
Four Winds-Minneauwaken
Langdon Area-Munich
Shiloh
Trinity
Ryan
Our Redeemers
Oak Grove

44 kindergardeners and below: the rest.

There are some I left out, as I'm almost positive an active co-op would dissolve if this were in place (Hillsboro-CV, Wynd-Lidg-Hank). Lisbon is probably up when it gets its two kindergardeners that go to Fort Ranson, which moves their number from 44 to 46. This won't be complete.

What's interesting to me: If you drew that number at 44 and below are B, you'd see so many co-ops fall apart and field their own teams again, at least I think you would, that you'd think we had moved the clock back 20 years.

[Aces]

Not stroking your ego Heimer, but this isn't the worst plan or idea you've ever had. I don't like the Kindergarten makeup of this, but I had this conversation with someone the other day while watching the 3-class vote. If ND weren't 20+ years behind on the 3-class system, this recent discussion/vote would have been about 4 classes, which I believe is a better representation of what's happening in our state.

I'm too lazy to look, but I'd love to see the corresponding 8-11 current enrollments compared to this plan to see how it falls. Because it's all fake and none of it is real, would you see maybe a VC opt-up? Would you include promotion and relegation (within certain levels)?

[Bisonguy06]

Heimer, this won’t surprise you, but I’m not ready for four classes yet.

Let’s set aside what I think. I want to know what you think.

Mandan will have a brand new high school and is part of the rapidly growing and second largest metro area in the state.

The Grand Forks schools probably have never played in anything other than the top division in 100 years.

Williston is boomtown USA with a plum full, brand new high school.

Modest growth in Dickinson, perhaps not keeping pace with the largest metro areas.

Do you really believe all or any of these five belong outside the top division?
“Do you like the current football plan” might be a different way of asking the same question.

Football makes this worthy of discussion. But we are talking basketball, and you can ride eight guys a long way.

I think we have 16+ that belong in the top basketball division for the foreseeable future. What do you think?

[heimer]

To answer the above questions:

I'm getting ready to call a game, so I can't get too much done here.

All I can say is that this isn't an idea, it's the start of an idea, really.

The thing that made me look was the numbers down the road. Seeing the largest kindergarden class in the state being in West Fargo, the fifth largest city(?) made the look at the far future. It just seemed to reveal something.

[Bisonguy06]

Yeah. Briefly, I think you need minimum of 16 teams to justify a new basketball division. I don’t see it here.

[Bisonguy06]

Fast forward to 2030. I picture the following in place or on the horizon:

EDC (11)
GFC
GFRR
Fargo North
Fargo South
Fargo Davies
Fargo New
West Fargo
WF Sheyenne
WF Horace
WF New
Fargo Shanley (opt up)

WDA (11)
Jamestown
Minot
Minot North
Williston
Dickinson
Mandan
Bismarck
Century
Legacy
Bismarck New
St Mary’s (opt up)

I think the 20 largest high schools will be perfectly balanced east and west, with the largest school being no more than 2.5 times larger than the smallest. The opt ups from the parochials would balance.

I don’t know why you would blow that up.

[heimer]

I wouldn't necessarily blow it up. I just don't know if the scenario will hold.

There's more at play than just numbers. There's trends, and there's resources.

Frankly, I don't think Jamestown will have the resources to stay in the top class long-long term. Their smallest classes are in kindergarten, first, and second grade. Numbers in school mean money from the state, and that's more money to spend on things like athletics, buildings, coaches, all of it.

I've never been hung up on the number of teams in a division, and there's no point in anyone even trying to explain it to me. You don't need 16 teams to feel good about yourself. If your division is equitable, and the 11, or whatever, teams that are in it look like each other, that's the division you should be in. Packing four more small teams into the division to make it look legit to us is unnecessary.

Some people think there's a magic number out there. That's all it is, magic.

[Bisonguy06]

I agree that Jamestown could fall from that top division. In my 2030 crystal ball, I still see 16+ at the top.

I think you need an east and a west region for any division to be big enough.
I could go as low as 12 (6 east, 6 west).

Regions minimize travel.
Travel equals class time missed.
These are schools first, which often gets lost here in a sports message board.

[Aces]

I think too much stock gets put into "division-only" games. Good "AA" teams could schedule out AAA teams. Good A teams could schedule out AA teams. You could keep regional rivalries. Travel stays low, good teams can play non-conference up, and bad teams can play non-conference down. Like NCAA/NAIA teams do.

I'm fine solidifying the numbers and then figuring it out from there. I'm also not against relegation and/or promotion.

[kboftw]

There are some I left out, as I'm almost positive an active co-op would dissolve if this were in place (Hillsboro-CV, Wynd-Lidg-Hank). Lisbon is probably up when it gets its two kindergardeners that go to Fort Ranson, which moves their number from 44 to 46. This won't be complete.

Hillsboro-Central Valley is not going to dissolve.