2022 Playoffs

[NDPREP]

Next year 9-man will have four regions of 10 teams in each region. No one will be playing any non-regional games at all as they will have 9-game Regional Schedules. How does QRF work in that situation? Theoretically if there is 4 undefeated region champions, wouldn't they all have the exact same QRF score?

One factor that should eliminate having the same QRF score, would be point differential in those 9 games.

You do that and teams are going to run up scores…when you HAVE to play your other region teams the QRF isn’t necessary. The QRF works in MN because they don’t HAVE to play their section teams…they can schedule whoever they want.

Except QRF does not take point differential into account, QRF assigns points as a team plays another that week based on the opponents scores. They exact formula is a secret for some reason but point differential is not used so running the score up doesn’t matter. From watching it over the years if you beat someone you should and lose to someone you should you don’t gain many points. But large upsets can jump teams 20 pts or lose teams 20 pts. It is also why they wait a couple weeks to calc it the first time.

https://d2q0tptsfejku7.cloudfront.net/uploads/files/2021_22_Sports_And_Activities/Sports/Football/QRF%20Explained.pdf

[5-time state chump]

Next year 9-man will have four regions of 10 teams in each region. No one will be playing any non-regional games at all as they will have 9-game Regional Schedules. How does QRF work in that situation? Theoretically if there is 4 undefeated region champions, wouldn't they all have the exact same QRF score?

One factor that should eliminate having the same QRF score, would be point differential in those 9 games.

You do that and teams are going to run up scores…when you HAVE to play your other region teams the QRF isn’t necessary. The QRF works in MN because they don’t HAVE to play their section teams…they can schedule whoever they want.

You'd have to have a max if it were to be used. Like 17 or 24. Anything after that doesn't help you.

[ChickenNuggets]

Next year 9-man will have four regions of 10 teams in each region. No one will be playing any non-regional games at all as they will have 9-game Regional Schedules. How does QRF work in that situation? Theoretically if there is 4 undefeated region champions, wouldn't they all have the exact same QRF score?

One factor that should eliminate having the same QRF score, would be point differential in those 9 games.

You do that and teams are going to run up scores…when you HAVE to play your other region teams the QRF isn’t necessary. The QRF works in MN because they don’t HAVE to play their section teams…they can schedule whoever they want.

You'd have to have a max if it were to be used. Like 17 or 24. Anything after that doesn't help you.

17 points is what is used for playoff tiebreakers- I went through weeks 1-8 and looked at the scores of each game just for reference-

Week 1-
14 Games were 17+ wins
6 were decided by 16 or less
3 were 8 or less

Week 2-
14 were 17+
7 were 16 or less
5 were 8 or less

week 3-
18 were 17+
1 game was 8 or less

Week 4-
12 games were 17+
7 games were 16 or less
4 were 8 or less

week 5
17 were 17+
3 were 16 or less
2 were 8 or less

week 6-
17 were 17+
4 were 16 or less
3 were 8 or less

week 7-
16 games were 17+
4 were 16 or less
1 was 8 or less

Week 8-
18 games were 17+
2 were 8 or less

For the 2022 regular season-
160 Total Games
126 of the games (79%) were won by 17 points or more
21 of the games (13%) were decided by 8 points or less

Of the 8 Region Champs-
LaMoure- Played 1 game within 17 points (Beat MPCG by 4)
MPCG- Played 1 game within 17 points (Lost to LaMoure by 4)
Cavalier- Played 2 games within 17 points (Beat Nelson County by 10, Beat North border by 6)
North Prairie- Played 1 game within 17 points (Beat St. John by 6)
New Salem-Almnot- Played 1 game within 17 points (Beat South Border by
Grant County Flasher- played 2 games within 17 points (Lost to South Border by 12, Beat Hett./Scranton by 16)
St. John- Played 2 games within 17 points (Lost to St. John by 6, lost to Northstar by 6)
Divide County- played 1 game within 17 points (Beat WNG by 6)

[Bacon]

The seeds seem reasonable.

Not if you are Cavalier

Why? Because they will probably have to play Lamoure in the playoffs? Have to beat who they put in front of you weather that is in the playoffs or in Fargo.

Thank you for the brilliant insight into HS Sports.

Why, thank you. I didn’t work on it as long as all the redundant over analyzing that mostly goes on here. But it’s way more accurate.

[defensewinsgames]

Hasn't been talked about a ton here but weird spot for Cavalier....make the Dakota Bowl and you get sent up to 11 man.

[Bacon]

Cavalier is still listed as being 9-man next year. Or am I missing something. Which according to some on here wouldn’t take much.

[WalkingStick]

Cavalier is still listed as being 9-man next year. Or am I missing something. Which according to some on here wouldn’t take much.

There are different scenarios for Cavalier & Sargent County when you click on the 11B Preliminary Region Maps...based on the success or lack of success factor (similar to what moved BSM up to 11AA this year).

[Bacon]

Cavalier has had a successful football program for as long as anyone can remember. I dont think they should be penalized for that. I’m sure they would do well in 11A but they shouldn’t be forced to go there.

[5-time state chump]

Cavalier is still listed as being 9-man next year. Or am I missing something. Which according to some on here wouldn’t take much.

There are different scenarios for Cavalier & Sargent County when you click on the 11B Preliminary Region Maps...based on the success or lack of success factor (similar to what moved BSM up to 11AA this year).

It's a socialist world. Even in ND sports. GF RR and Central and Fargo South and Fargo North got moved down because it wasn't fair that they had to compete vs schools their size.

So I can see them doing the same. If you're good, you have to go up. So what happens if Cavalier continues success? They move them to A? LOL

It looks like the goal is to chase the dream of getting every team to be 4-4-1.

[ChickenNuggets]

According to the NDHSAA website-

A team in 9-B or 11-A that accumulates 12 or more success points over a 4-year span would be moved up to 11B or 11AA. However a team in 11B could score 12 or more points and will never get moved up to 11A.

So apparently if Cavalier or LaMoure have sustained success in 9-man it is fair to move them up to play against teams that are double and in some case triple their enrollments, however if a team like Kindred, HCV, or Langdon have sustained success in their 11B division it is not fair to move them up to a division to play against teams that would have double or triple their enrollments... seems fairly odd to me that the NDHSAA doesn't make a set of rules that everyone would have to play by.

Success Points:
State Champion = 4 Points
Runner-up = 3 Points
Loss in Semi-finals = 2 Points
Loss in Quarterfinals = 1 point

Here are some teams that could potentially be effected by this rule now or in the near future:

Bismarck St. Mary's: 2018- Runner up (3 Points); 2019- Lost in Semis (2 points); 2020- State Champs (4 Points); 2021- Runner-ups (3 Points) that equals 12 points and that is why they have been forced up to 11AA this year.

Cavalier- Runner-up 3 straight years gives them 9 points. A state championship or runner-up finish this year would give them 12 points and force them to 11B next year.

LaMoure- 2020 lost in semi-finals (2 points); 2021- State Champs (4 points). They're currently the #1 seed and have 6 points over the past two years so over the course of the remainder of this season and next if they won state and lost in the semi-finals or finished as runner-ups twice they would accumulate 6 more points and be forced up for the 2024 season.

Class 11-B teams are not subjected to this rule, but if they were there are a few teams who it could have an impact on-

Langdon- 2018-2019-2020 3X State Champs = 12 points. They would have had to go up in 2021 if this rule was enforced for 11B.

Hillsboro/CV- 2019 State Champs (4 Points); 2020- Lost in semi-finals (2 points); 2021- State runner-up (3 points) that's 9 points over 3 years. If they made it back to the title game this year they would finish with 12-13 points and would meet the success point threshold if it were enforced in this division.

Kindred- A state title this year would give them 11 points over the past 4 years, but they would be sitting at 10 points over 3 years which would mean that a semi-finals appearance or better in 2023 would give them 12+ points and if the rule were enforced in 11B, would mean that Kindred could be forced up in 2024... IF the rule was enforced the same for everyone

Also interesting about this "Success Points" system- If a team is forced to go up, they must stay up for a minimum of 2 years. If in that 2-year span they score 3 success points total, they must stay another 2 years, but if they score less than 3 points they can move back down to where they belong based on enrollment.

[BasketballMind]

Cavalier is still listed as being 9-man next year. Or am I missing something. Which according to some on here wouldn’t take much.

It's dependent on where they finish this year. I believe it's semifinals or better and they move up.

[defensewinsgames]

Cavalier is still listed as being 9-man next year. Or am I missing something. Which according to some on here wouldn’t take much.

It's dependent on where they finish this year. I believe it's semifinals or better and they move up.

They have to make the dakota bowl - runner up or championship finish moves them up

[WalkingStick]

Closet game was 18 points

Avg margin was 31.25 points