2022 Playoff Picture

[ChickenNuggets]

I would preface this post by saying that there are still MANY MANY unpredictable outcomes for each game, but at this point in the season I do feel that there is a fairly safe predictability in how some games will turn out so this is not stone cold fact, but in my opinion are likely scenarios.

Region 1-
LaMoure-Litchville-Marion (2-0);(6-0)
Wyndmere-Lidgerwood (2-0);(5-1)
Hankinson (1-1);(4-2)
Richland (1-2);(2-4)
Tri-State (0-3);(0-6)

Realistically there are two teams vying for the Region Title which are LaMoure and Wyndmere/Lidgerwood. Hankinson mathematically has a chance but that would require them beating LaMoure and Wyndmere losing to Tri-state and then beating LaMoure. It's not a likely scenario. The most likely scenario that I see here is that come week 8 the Loboes and Warbirds battle it out for the #1 and #2 positions in the region while Hankinson and Richland essentially start their playoffs in week 8 with the winner getting the 3rd and final playoff spot and the loser being done for the season.


Region 2-
May Port-CG (2-0);(5-1)
Maple River (1-0);(4-2)
Hatton-Northwood (1-2);(2-4)
Griggs-Midkota (1-2);(1-5)
Enderlin (0-2);(1-5)

MayPort CG and Maple River appear to be the two top teams in the Region and they have a meeting in Week 8 that will likely decide the Region 2 champion. The other big game that remains on the Region 2 slate is a week 8 showdown between Hatton-Northwood and Enderlin. A Hatton Northwood win would clinch the 3rd playoff spot in the region while an Enderlin win would create a 3-way Tie for that third place position which would likely mean that score differentials would determine the final playoff qualifier.


Region 3-
Cavalier (3-0);(6-0)
North Border (2-0);(4-2)
Larimore (1-2);(3-3)
Nelson County (0-2);(3-3)
Midway-Minto (0-2);(0-5)

As in Region 2, Region 3 has two very big games remaining on their schedules over the next two weeks. In week 7 we will see a matchup with Nelson County traveling to Larimore which will virtually be a playoff game as the winner will claim that third place finish int he region. The following week we will see a Region Championship game when Cavalier travels to North Border for a winner-take-all week 8 finale.


Region 4-
North Prairie (2-0);(6-0)
New Rockford-Sheyenne (2-1);(3-3)
Four Winds (0-1);(3-2)
North Star (1-1);(3-3)
Benson County (0-2);(1-4)

This region is still entirely up for grabs! They have a lot of meaningful games over the final two weeks of the season! This upcoming week will really help clear up a lot for this region as North Star plays Four Winds and NRS plays North Prairie. The Northstar/Four Winds game is huge as a loss for Four Winds likely takes them out of the playoffs and a win for North Star likely guarantees them a top-2 finish.


Region 5-
New Salem-Almont (3-0);(6-0)
South Border (2-1);(5-1)
Kidder County (2-1);(2-4)
Central McLean (1-2);(3-3)
Napoleon-Gackle-Streeter (0-4);(2-4)

Kidder County plays New Salem this coming week- A NSA Win will seal the region title. A KC win would potentially create a 3-way Tie between those two teams and South Border. Central McLean mathematically has a chance if they could knock of South Border this coming week. At this point, All Signs point to 1- NSA, 2- SB, 3- KC.


Region 6-
Grant County-Flasher (3-0);(4-2)
Hettinger County (2-1);(3-3)
Hettinger-Scranton (2-1);(3-3)
4. Beach (1-3);(2-4)
5. Richardton-Taylor-Hebron (0-3);(0-6)

While Region 4 was still completely up in the air at this point, Region 6 is about as cut and dry as you can be after 6 weeks. GC-F has already clinched the top seed for the region and Beach and RTH are mathematically eliminated. Hettinger County will travel to Hettinger-Scranton this week to play to see who finishes 2nd and 3rd respectively.


Region 7-
St. John (3-0);(4-2)
Westhope-Newburg-Glenburn (2-0);(4-2)
Mohall-Lansford-Sherwood (1-1);(2-4)
Dunseith (0-2);(1-5)
Towner-Granville-Upham (0-3);(0-6)

St. John is a lock for 1st or 2nd place in the region. WNG needs a win against MLS to set up a winner-take-all Region Championship game against St. John in week 8, but regardless, WNG cannot finish lower than 3rd even if they were to lose their final two games. So with two playoff spots secured, all three of the remaining teams are still mathematically alive to clinch the third position. There is a good chance that the third and final playoff spot is determined week 8 with Dunseith playing MLS in a high-stakes "Win and you're in" regular season finale.


Region 8-
Divide County (3-0);(6-0)
Tioga (2-1);(4-1)
Surrey (2-1);(3-3)
Lewis & Clark-Berthold (1-1);(2-3)
Alexander (2-2);(2-4)

Region 8 has a lot left to play for! Divide County is squarely in the drivers seat as they are unbeaten with games against Lewis & Clark and Tioga remaining. If Tioga wins, that could create a 3-way tie between DC, Tioga, and Surrey. If my math is right- If Tioga beat DC by less than 12, DC would still be the 1 seed, Surrey the 2, and Tioga the 3, but if Tioga beats DC by 12 or more than Tioga would be the 1, DC the 2 and Surrey the 3. All of this could be completely trashed if Lewis & Clark beats either DC or Surrey in the next two weeks or if Alexander beats Surrey.

[Flip]

Region 4-
North Prairie (2-0);(6-0)
New Rockford-Sheyenne (2-1);(3-3)
Four Winds (0-1);(3-2)
North Star (1-1);(3-3)
Benson County (0-2);(1-4)

This region is still entirely up for grabs! They have a lot of meaningful games over the final two weeks of the season! This upcoming week will really help clear up a lot for this region as North Star plays Four Winds and NRS plays North Prairie. The Northstar/Four Winds game is huge as a loss for Four Winds likely takes them out of the playoffs and a win for North Star likely guarantees them a top-2 finish.

With Friday's results, this region is going to end up being a 3-way tie for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. How is that going to play out? We should know since they've all played either other, right?

Yes, I'm making a couple assumptions in the final week.

[WalkingStick]

North Star would be +11
NR-S would be 0
FW would be -11

Therefore North Star would get #2 and then NR-S gets #3 with its H2H win over FW.

All of this is moot if FW can pull the biggest upset of the season or North Star falters vs Benson County

[ChickenNuggets]

With just one week left, there is quite obviously a much clearer picture of what the playoff scenarios are. Here are some updates:

Region 1-
LaMoure-Litchville-Marion (3-0);(7-0)
Wyndmere-Lidgerwood (3-0);(6-1)
Hankinson (1-2);(4-3)
Richland (1-2);(3-4)
Tri-State (0-4);(0-7)

It's a big week in this region! The top 2 teams- LaMoure and Wyndmere/Lidgerwood will play for the region championship! Then the playoffs start early for Hankinson and Richland- Whoever wins is in and the season will end Friday night for the team who comes out on the short end of the scoreboard. Pretty cut and dry!


Region 2-
May Port-CG (3-0);(6-1)
Maple River (3-0);(5-2)
Hatton-Northwood (1-2);(2-5)
Griggs-Midkota (1-3);(1-6)
Enderlin (0-3);(1-6)

Like Region 1- The Region 2 crown will be placed on the team who comes out in a head-to-head matchup between MayPort CG and Maple River with the loser finishing in second place. The third and final playoff spot is still up for grabs here as well, but is not as cut and dry as Region 1. Hatton/Northwood is most in control of their own destiny. If they win, they are in. In fact, if my math is right, even if they lose by 16 or less, they will still be in as it would create a 3-way tie for 3rd place and they would win the point differential. If Enderlin were to win by 17 or more it would create a 3-way tie for 3rd with the point differential also being tied. The next step in the tie-breaker would be point differential for ALL regional games- which also would be a tie in this scenario! The final tie-breaker criteria after this step would be to place all 3 tied teams in a hat and draw the winner that would make the playoffs. Long story short- Hatton-Northwood needs a win or a loss by 16 or less to avoid a "Draw them out of a hat" situation to pick a playoff team. *Note- This is assuming that this region is using the suggested playoff tie-breaker criteria set forth by NDHSAA- They do have the option to use a different criteria if they had agreed on one at the beginning of the season.

Region 3-
Cavalier (3-0);(6-0)
North Border (3-0);(5-2)
Larimore (2-2);(4-3)
Nelson County (0-3);(3-4)
Midway-Minto (0-3);(0-6)

Larimore sewed up a playoff spot by beating Nelson County this past week. They are guaranteed the third position and cannot finish any higher than that. But the #1 and #2 positions are still up for grabs between Cavalier and North Border who will play this week at North Border. The winner gets 1st and the loser will finish in 2nd place for the region.

Region 4-
North Prairie (3-0);(7-0)
Four Winds (2-1);(5-2)
New Rockford-Sheyenne (2-2);(3-4)
North Star (1-2);(3-4)
Benson County (0-3);(1-6)

As mentioned previously- The playoff waters in this region got a little bit muddier with the Four Winds win over Northstar this past week. As it sits right now it would be North Prairie 1, Northstar 2, NRS 3, Four Winds and Benson County out of the playoffs. But the Four Winds win over Northstar gave them a hope and a prayer! They travel to North Prairie with their season on the line. A loss ends their season, but a win would actually propel them all the way up to first place in the region as they would have the same regional record as NP and would win the tie-breaker on head to head. That would mean Four Winds 1, NP 2, and Northstar 3 knocking NRS out of the playoffs altogether.

Region 5-
1. New Salem-Almont (4-0);(7-0)
2. South Border (3-1);(6-1)
3. Kidder County (2-2);(2-5)
4. Central McLean (1-3);(3-4)
5. Napoleon-Gackle-Streeter (0-4);(3-4)

This region is set 1-5 as they have completed their regional schedule. NSA 1, SB 2, and KC 3

Region 6-
1. Grant County-Flasher (4-0);(5-2)
2. Hettinger County (3-1);(4-3)
3. Hettinger-Scranton (2-2);(3-4)
4. Beach (1-3);(2-5)
5. Richardton-Taylor-Hebron (0-4);(0-7)

This region is also set 1-5 as they are done with their regional schedule also- GCF 1, Hettinger County 2, Hettinger-Scranton 3

Region 7-
St. John (3-0);(5-2)
Westhope-Newburg-Glenburn (3-0);(5-2)
Mohall-Lansford-Sherwood (1-2);(2-5)
Dunseith (1-2);(2-5)
Towner-Granville-Upham (0-4);(0-7)

Nothing is set about this region yet! There are two huge games to be played this week. St. John will travel to WNG for the Region Championship game as both teams are 5-2 with 3-0 records within the region. A Region title and first round playoff bye are riding on this one. MLS will host Dunseith in a play-in game as well this week. Winner will claim the 3rd and final playoff spot in the region while the losing team will be done for the season.

Region 8-
Divide County (4-0);(7-0)
Tioga (3-1);(4-2)
Surrey (3-1);(4-3)
Alexander (2-3);(2-5)
Lewis & Clark-Berthold (1-3);(2-4)

I believe that the three playoff teams are solidified in this region, the only thing left to figure out is what order they will go in. The biggest game will by Tioga @ Divide County this week. A divide County win makes things real simple- DC 1, Surrey 2, Tioga 3. A Tioga win would muddy the waters as it would create a 3-way tie for 1st place between the same teams. The magic number here is 12. Tioga has to beat Divide County by 12 points to win the tie-breaker criteria. If Tioga won by 12 or more it would finish with Tioga 1, DC 2, and Surrey 3. But a Tioga loss or win by 11 or less would not change anything and it would result in DC 1, Surrey 2, and Tioga 3. If Surrey loses its final game to Lewis And Clark then Tioga would win the region with a win of ANY point margin over DC.


Playoff Outlook-
The first two rounds are based geographically and the seeding doesn't come into play until Quarterfinals- So here is what we know for sure for the first two rounds (Not a lot yet as only 7 of the 24 playoff spots are guaranteed at this point.
Region 1 Champion will play winner of Region 1 #3 @ Region 2 #2
Region 2 Champion will play winner of Region 2 #3 @ Region 1 #2
Region 3 Champion will play winner of LARIMORE @ Region 4 #2
Region 4 Champion will play Winner of Region 4 #3 @ Region 3 #2
NEW SALEM-ALMONT will play Winner of KIDDER COUNTY @ HETTINGER COUNTY
GRANT COUNTY/FLASHER will play Winner of HETTINGER/SCRANTON @ SOUTH BORDER
Region 7 Champion will play winner of Region 7 #3 @ Region 8 #2
Region 8 Champion will play winner of Region 8 #3 @ Region 7 #2

All for fun- Here's my guess on how it plays out -
LaMoure will play winner of Hankinson @ Maple River
MayPort CG will play winner of Hatton/Northwood @ Wyndmere/Lidgerwood
Cavalier will play winner of Larimore @ Northstar
North Prairie will play Winner of NR/S @ North Border
New Salem/Almont will play Winner of Kidder County @ Hettinger County
Grand County/Flasher will play Winner of Hettinger/Scranton @ South Border
St. John will play winner of MLS @ Surrey
Divide County will play winner of Tioga @ WNG

[Flip]

Potential seeds, what do we think?
1. Lamoure
2. New Salem
3. Cavalier
4. MPCG, I kind of think they should be #2
5. NP
6. Divide County
7. GC/F
8. SJ

If NB beats Cavalier they'll be a lower seed.

[ChickenNuggets]

Potential seeds, what do we think?
1. Lamoure
2. New Salem
3. Cavalier
4. MPCG, I kind of think they should be #2
5. NP
6. Divide County
7. GC/F
8. SJ

If NB beats Cavalier they'll be a lower seed.

Not a bad list- I think #2/3 could be flipped. I also think 4/5 could be in either order. in both of those cases, I think the schedules could play a part and I have mixed feelings on those. On one hand I think Cavalier may be penalized a bit for not playing a tougher non-conference schedule, but I know they tried very hard to schedule games against good competition early in the season and were denied by many teams who wouldn't play them. (I saw the e-mail their AD put out to the state looking for games and willing to travel to get them) I know we're talking about this year- but it's hard to argue with their rate of success recently and hard to put them behind New Salem when Cavalier went to New Salem last year and beat them there. In MPCG's case, I think they're very deserving of a top 5 seed and don't think that they should be penalized for playing a good (#1 ranked/defending champion) LaMoure team and losing a close game. With that said, NP is also undefeated to this point and beat both WNG & St. John (One of which will be a region champion, the other a region runner-up) as well as North Border (Also a Region champion or runner up depending on their game vs. Cavalier) so with North Prairie having run the table in their own region and defeating three teams who will finish in the top 2 of their other respective regions. Not sure that you can put them behind a team with a loss. What more could they have done?

1- LaMoure
2- Cavalier
3- New Salem
4- North Prairie
5- MPCG
6- Divide County
7- Grant County Flasher
8- WNG/St. John

[Flip]

I'm sure Cavalier will get a high seed, but I don't think they'll have a walk in the park for even their first playoff game. If you look at their region games vs the top four teams. It just isn't that convincing.
Beat North Border by 6.
Beat Larimore by 30. It was a 6 point game going into the 4th quarter.
Beat Nelson County by 10.

[WalkingStick]

My Thoughts
1. LaMoure-LM
2. New Salem-Almont
3. Cavalier
4. North Prairie
5. May-Port-CG
6. Divide County
7. St. John
8. Grant County/Flasher

Playoff Qualifiers - Each Region
REGION 1
LaMoure-LM, Wyndmere-Lidgerwood, Richland
REGION 2
May-Port-CG, Maple River, Hatton-Northwood
REGION 3
Cavalier, North Border, Larimore
REGION 4
North Prairie, North Star, New Rockford-Sheyenne
REGION 5
New Salem-Almont, South Border, Kidder County
REGION 6
Grant County/Flasher, Hettinger County, Hettinger-Scranton
REGION 7
St. John, Westhope-Newburg-Glenburn, Mohall-Lansford-Sherwood
REGION 8
Divide County, Surrey, Tioga