2021 9B State Football Playoffs

[woodchuck10]

#1 LaMoure-LM (if W/L, Hank, or EMV #7)
#2 New Salem-A
#3 Cavalier (If MPCG #4, If FSHP #6)
#4 Bottineau (if NP #6, If SJ #8)
#5 Divide Co
#6 Nelson Co (if NR-S #8)
#7 Hettinger-S (if MR-NE #8)
#8 Surrey

I would rank the "if" teams:
MPCG
NP
FSHP
W/L
Hankinson
E-MV
NR-S
SJ
MR-NE

[The Schwab]

My rankings would be:

#1- LaMoure LM- I don't see a scenario where they aren't number 1
#2- New Salem-Almont- I feel they play in the toughest region in the state, South Border is the best 2 seed
#3- Cavalier- Tradition wins out here and gives them the 3 seed, the next two weeks will tell us a lot.
#4- Hettinger-Scranton- Best team no one knows about. Loss to South Border could hurt them in the seeding, but South Border would be a top 4 team if not in NSA's region.
#5- Bottineau- Having a very solid year
#6- Divide County- We will see how they stack up against Surrey last game of the year
#7- Surrey- Same as above
#8- Nelson County- Having a nice year, someone has to be 8th

[WalkingStick]

My thoughts
#1: LaMoure-LM
#2: Cavalier (if they handle MPCG)
#3: New Salem-Almont
#4: Bottineau
#5: Divide County
#6: Nelson County
#7: Hettinger-Scranton (If MR-NE wins this week then move to #8...and Surrey is #7)
#8: Surrey

I think this opens the door for some very unique & statewide matchups if they all make it to the quarterfinals...

Hettinger-Scranton would have a unique first game matchup between SB/GCF winner (if no upsets occur in final few weeks); things clear up on what the first round matchups could be after this week in most regions.

[ChickenNuggets]

So if I get this right (The way the brackets work, not the seeding!)- Hypothetically it could look like this:

#1- LLM vs. Bye
R1-3 MVE vs. R2-MPCG

#8- Surrey vs. Bye
R8#2 Ray/Powers Lake vs. R7#3 Mohall/L/S

#5- Bottineau vs. Bye
R3#2 New Rockford vs. R4#3 St. John

#4- Divide County vs. Bye
R7#2 Lewis & Clark/Berthold vs R8#3 Tioga

#3- Cavalier vs. Bye
R1#2 Wyndmere/Lidgerwood vs. R2 #3 FSHP

#6- Nelson County vs. Bye
R4#2 North Prairie vs. R3#3 Northstar

#7- Hettinger/Scranton vs. Bye
R5#2 South Border vs. R6#3 Mott/Regent

#2- New Salem vs. Bye
R6#2- Grant County/Flasher vs. R5#3 Napoleon

Everything is becoming clear as mud!
1- LaMoure- I don't see how anyone is going to overtake them for the #1 seed.

2/3- New Salem & Cavalier- I could see these two teams going either way. Cavalier certainly has a chance to help their resume if they could get a big win at MPCG this week and another convincing win at FSHP next week. That would be potentially 4 wins over playoff teams including two road wins over teams ranked in the top-5 at the time of those matchups (Wyndmere & MPCG). That might be enough to move to #2.

4- Divide County still has a big game vs. Surrey next week. Assuming they win this (I will assume because they beat R/PL who beat Surrey, but it certainly is not a given). I would say they would have the resume to be here at #4 with those two big wins.

5/6- Bottineau and Nelson County- I think it would be difficult to seed teams with losses over unbeaten teams, not that it couldn't happen. I do think Bottineau looks to be more impressive at this point in the season and would guess Bottineau goes 5, Nelson County goes 6.

7- Hettinger/Scranton- I think at this point right now in the season they are the #7 but they finish with two really big games to close things out with Mott/Regent and Napoleon. If they win both of those games, especially if they beat Napoleon and their QB is healthy and plays, that could be enough to move them up a few spots. As it is though, I think they're at 7. They lost to SB (A very good team) and at this point their only win against a play-off caliber team is over 2-4 Grant County.

8- Surrey- I have Divide County at #4 as an unbeaten team, so assuming that is right, that puts Surrey in the play-offs as a region champion with 2 losses and I can't see them going ahead of anyone undefeated. no matter where they end up seeding wise, their second round game very likely will be against Ray/PL who they have lost to earlier in the season. If they were to beat Divide County next week I think it could throw a huge monkey-wrench into where everyone lands 4-8 in the bracket. Should make for an exciting end to the season.

[The Schwab]

It is so incredibly difficult to determine seedings. With 8 regions and each region being paired with only one other region for games you're not going to have a lot of common opponents. It's also very tough to rank teams because across the state there are a lot of regions that may have 1 or 2 really good teams and the other teams on their schedule are very weak. I may be alone in this line of thinking, but if you are going to pair regions 1 and 2 up in their regular season schedules, then you should pair region 1 with another region for the first round two rounds of playoffs.

I also firmly believe that we should seed the final 16 teams after the first round of playoffs, that would give us a better shot at having the best 8 teams in the quarter finals.

Here are my predictions for the round of 16 games (just going off of my gut feelings as I know teams still have regional games)

LaMoure-LM vs. MPCG- Teams haven't met before this season, I'll take LLM by 12 in this game
Cavalier vs. WL- Cavalier won the first matchup by 8 on the road, I'll take Cavalier by 14
Nelson County vs. North Prairie- Nelson County won the first matchup big on the road, I'll take NC by 20
Bottineau vs. St. John- Bottineau won the first matchup by 2 scores on the road, I'll take them by 12
New Salem vs. Napoleon GS- New Salem won by 20 on the road in the first matchup. NS by 16
Hettinger Scranton vs. South Border- SB won the first matchup by 18 at home. I'll take HS by 8 in the rematch. The 4+ hour bus ride plays a factor here.
Surrey vs. Ray PL- Ray PL won the first matchup by 2 at home. I'll take Surrey by 6 in the rematch
Divide County vs. Lewis and Clark- DC won the first matchup big. DC by 26+ in the rematch

Just throwing these out there to get discussion rolling

[ChickenNuggets]

It is so incredibly difficult to determine seedings. With 8 regions and each region being paired with only one other region for games you're not going to have a lot of common opponents. It's also very tough to rank teams because across the state there are a lot of regions that may have 1 or 2 really good teams and the other teams on their schedule are very weak. I may be alone in this line of thinking, but if you are going to pair regions 1 and 2 up in their regular season schedules, then you should pair region 1 with another region for the first round two rounds of playoffs.

I also firmly believe that we should seed the final 16 teams after the first round of playoffs, that would give us a better shot at having the best 8 teams in the quarter finals.

Here are my predictions for the round of 16 games (just going off of my gut feelings as I know teams still have regional games)

LaMoure-LM vs. MPCG- Teams haven't met before this season, I'll take LLM by 12 in this game
Cavalier vs. WL- Cavalier won the first matchup by 8 on the road, I'll take Cavalier by 14
Nelson County vs. North Prairie- Nelson County won the first matchup big on the road, I'll take NC by 20
Bottineau vs. St. John- Bottineau won the first matchup by 2 scores on the road, I'll take them by 12
New Salem vs. Napoleon GS- New Salem won by 20 on the road in the first matchup. NS by 16
Hettinger Scranton vs. South Border- SB won the first matchup by 18 at home. I'll take HS by 8 in the rematch. The 4+ hour bus ride plays a factor here.
Surrey vs. Ray PL- Ray PL won the first matchup by 2 at home. I'll take Surrey by 6 in the rematch
Divide County vs. Lewis and Clark- DC won the first matchup big. DC by 26+ in the rematch

Just throwing these out there to get discussion rolling

I would think in your idea to seed the 16 teams left after the 1st round that any team could be considered for any seed? Based on the matchups you listed, maybe something like this?

1- LaMoure
16-St. John
9- Ray/Powers Lake
8- Hettinger/Scranton

5- Bottineau
12-Wyndmere/Lidgerwood
13- MayPort CG
4- Divide County

3- Cavalier
14- North Prairie
11- Napoleon
6- South Border

7- Nelson County
10- Surrey
15- Lewis & Clark
2- New Salem

[The Schwab]

I would much rather them be seeded like in your projection. My discussion was from what I feel will actually happen with the current football playoff alignment. All of the teams listed first IMO will be region winners and the teams listed second I predict will win their first round games.

[Bacon]

South border should be ranked higher and I think is a better team than most give credit. They played number 2 New Salem at New Salem and was an even game and lost by 6 in the 4th quarter. They won’t lose a game the rest of the regular season. Their probably isn’t a team in the state that would beat New Salem at home other than Lamoure. I might be wrong but that is just my opinion.

[The Schwab]

LaMoure-LM vs. MPCG- Teams haven't met before this season, I'll take LLM by 12 in this game
Cavalier vs. WL- Cavalier won the first matchup by 8 on the road, I'll take Cavalier by 14
Nelson County vs. North Prairie- Nelson County won the first matchup big on the road, I'll take NC by 20
Bottineau vs. St. John- Bottineau won the first matchup by 2 scores on the road, I'll take them by 12
New Salem vs. Napoleon GS- New Salem won by 20 on the road in the first matchup. NS by 16
Hettinger Scranton vs. South Border- SB won the first matchup by 18 at home. I'll take HS by 8 in the rematch. The 4+ hour bus ride plays a factor here.
Surrey vs. Ray PL- Ray PL won the first matchup by 2 at home. I'll take Surrey by 6 in the rematch
Divide County vs. Lewis and Clark- DC won the first matchup big. DC by 26+ in the rematch

Just throwing these out there to get discussion rolling

Flip around North Prairie and St. John based on their game on Friday. Also I think FSHP may beat WL in round 1 for the right to play Cavalier. Other than that I still like my picks. An interesting side note is that Lewis and Clark plays Kenmare this week and in week 1 of the playoffs.

[ChickenNuggets]

9B QRF Ratings:

https://northdakota-scores.net/classqrf ... 4&class=33

[WalkingStick]

9B QRF Ratings:

https://northdakota-scores.net/classqrf ... 4&class=33

In the end the Coaches vote for the seeds in 9-man…QRF probably will be used as a measuring tool.

QRF only used to rank in the 11AA & 11A levels where it is 1-8 seeds (not equal east/west participants).

[The Schwab]

I like that there is a formula that helps us compare teams, I just don't know how much validity there is with the formula. New Salem is undefeated and ranked lower than South Border (a team that New Salem beat), I realize that there is another game this week and NS is playing a team with a better record this week so it's possible in the final QRF they are higher.

[WalkingStick]

I like that there is a formula that helps us compare teams, I just don't know how much validity there is with the formula. New Salem is undefeated and ranked lower than South Border (a team that New Salem beat), I realize that there is another game this week and NS is playing a team with a better record this week so it's possible in the final QRF they are higher.

R-T-H is hurting NSA...but that'll balance out this week when SB plays them.

[The Schwab]

I like that there is a formula that helps us compare teams, I just don't know how much validity there is with the formula. New Salem is undefeated and ranked lower than South Border (a team that New Salem beat), I realize that there is another game this week and NS is playing a team with a better record this week so it's possible in the final QRF they are higher.

R-T-H is hurting NSA...but that'll balance out this week when SB plays them.

I guess that makes sense, currently NSA's opponents have 10 more combined losses than SB's opponents.

[bison football73]

I like that there is a formula that helps us compare teams, I just don't know how much validity there is with the formula. New Salem is undefeated and ranked lower than South Border (a team that New Salem beat), I realize that there is another game this week and NS is playing a team with a better record this week so it's possible in the final QRF they are higher.

R-T-H is hurting NSA...but that'll balance out this week when SB plays them.

I guess that makes sense, currently NSA's opponents have 10 more combined losses than SB's opponents.

I agree this evens out after this week a little bit. I think what hurts New Salem is having Beach on the schedule where SB had Hettinger instead.

[The Schwab]

I like that there is a formula that helps us compare teams, I just don't know how much validity there is with the formula. New Salem is undefeated and ranked lower than South Border (a team that New Salem beat), I realize that there is another game this week and NS is playing a team with a better record this week so it's possible in the final QRF they are higher.

R-T-H is hurting NSA...but that'll balance out this week when SB plays them.

I guess that makes sense, currently NSA's opponents have 10 more combined losses than SB's opponents.

I agree this evens out after this week a little bit. I think what hurts New Salem is having Beach on the schedule where SB had Hettinger instead.

Before the season who would have thought that Hettinger Scranton would be more beneficial to have on the schedule than Beach. That's why they play the games

[WalkingStick]

Coaches will have the QRF and the weekly polls to work off of for seeding purposes.

The QRF isn't as proven in ND cause we don't use it in the winter when there are more games played and the numbers work out better. MN uses it for everything.

[ChickenNuggets]

The thing about QRF in a small state like ND is that I don't think it holds a lot of merit until the entire season has been played out. Even then, I think it shows less of who the best teams are and more of who has played the most difficult schedules.

South Border is being rewarded in the QRF right now because all of their non-conference games to this point have been against play-off qualifying teams that have a lot of wins.

LaMoure is being penalized because two of their non-conference teams that they played are either winless or have one win and they also have two winless conference teams that they've played.

I think both teams are good, but I don't think many people would argue that a 1-loss SB team is better than LaMoure right now even though QRF has SB 2 and LaMoure 7. All it shows us is that SB has played a much more difficult schedule to this point.

[WalkingStick]

Agreed...since we know the QRF is based off of opponent wins.

[WalkingStick]

My thoughts

1. LaMoure-LM
2. Cavalier
3. New Salem-Almont
4. Bottineau
5. Nelson County
6. Hettinger-Scranton
7. Surrey
8. Divide County

Cavalier & NS-A are interchangeable at #2 & #3
Bottineau & Nelson County are interchangeable at #4 & #5
Surrey hurt by a 3-team region...H-S non-conference schedule was solid vs. Region 5