2021 9B Playoff Scenarios

[Sorenson23]

I clearly wasn't paying attention and didn't put this under the 9 Man Topic. But feel free to discuss or post what the bracket could look like.

[ChickenNuggets]

With just a week to go in the regular season, here are the play-off scenarios:

Region 1-
#1- LaMoure (Locked)
#2/3- If Wyndmere/Lidgerwood beats Hankinson, W/L would be the #2 and MV-E would be #3. If Hankinson wins, it would create a 3-way Tie for 2nd place. The way the point differential sits now, Hankinson would have to win by 17 or more and that would create a 3-way tie for point differential. A Hankinson win by 16 or less would not change anything and it would still be W/L #2 and MV-E #3

Region 2-
The three teams getting in are locked. It will be Cavalier, MayPortCG and FSHP, but the order is not 100% locked in yet. If Cavalier beats FSHP or loses by 16 or less, they will be #1, MPCG #2, FSHP #3. If FSHP beats Cavalier by 17 or more, it would be #1- FSHP, #2 Cavalier, #3 MPCG

Region 3-
Nelson County vs. New Rockford/Sheyenne this week is for the Region title. Winner is #1, loser is #2.
Four Winds will be #3 if they beat Benson County. If they lose, it would create a 3-way Tie for 3rd place that would then go to point differential. Northstar is at a +3 with no games left to factor into points. Four winds is at a +14, Benson County is at a -17 and they play each other. Benson County is out no matter what. Four winds has to lose by 12 or more for Northstar to win the tie-breaker.

Region 4-
Bottineau, St. John, and North Prairie are locked into the playoffs, but their positions are up for grabs. Bottineau plays NP this week. A Bottineau win would mean #1- Bottineau, #2 St John, #3 NP. A North Prairie win would create a 3-way Tie that would go to point differential. St. John is locked in at a -2 differential. NP is currently a -12 and Bottineau is a +14. If North Prairie won by 14 or more, it would then go #1- NP, #2- Bottineau, #3- St. John.

Region 5- (Locked)
#1- New Salem
#2- South Border
#3- Napoleon

Region 6- (Locked)
#1- Hettinger/Scranton
#2- Mott/Regent
#3- Grant County/Flasher

Region 7- (Locked)
1- Surrey
2- Lewis & Clark
3- MLS

Region 8- (Locked)
#1- Divide County
#2- Ray/Powers Lake
#3- Kenmare/Bowbells/BC

[bison football73]

With just a week to go in the regular season, here are the play-off scenarios:

Region 1-
#1- LaMoure (Locked)
#2/3- If Wyndmere/Lidgerwood beats Hankinson, W/L would be the #2 and MV-E would be #3. If Hankinson wins, it would create a 3-way Tie for 2nd place. The way the point differential sits now, Hankinson would have to win by 17 or more and that would create a 3-way tie for point differential. A Hankinson win by 16 or less would not change anything and it would still be W/L #2 and MV-E #3

Region 2-
The three teams getting in are locked. It will be Cavalier, MayPortCG and FSHP, but the order is not 100% locked in yet. If Cavalier beats FSHP or loses by 16 or less, they will be #1, MPCG #2, FSHP #3. If FSHP beats Cavalier by 17 or more, it would be #1- FSHP, #2 Cavalier, #3 MPCG

Region 3-
Nelson County vs. New Rockford/Sheyenne this week is for the Region title. Winner is #1, loser is #2.
Four Winds will be #3 if they beat Benson County. If they lose, it would create a 3-way Tie for 3rd place that would then go to point differential. Northstar is at a +3 with no games left to factor into points. Four winds is at a +14, Benson County is at a -17 and they play each other. Benson County is out no matter what. Four winds has to lose by 12 or more for Northstar to win the tie-breaker.

Region 4-
Bottineau, St. John, and North Prairie are locked into the playoffs, but their positions are up for grabs. Bottineau plays NP this week. A Bottineau win would mean #1- Bottineau, #2 St John, #3 NP. A North Prairie win would create a 3-way Tie that would go to point differential. St. John is locked in at a -2 differential. NP is currently a -12 and Bottineau is a +14. If North Prairie won by 14 or more, it would then go #1- NP, #2- Bottineau, #3- St. John.

Region 5- (Locked)
#1- New Salem
#2- South Border
#3- Napoleon

Region 6- (Locked)
#1- Hettinger/Scranton
#2- Mott/Regent
#3- Grant County/Flasher

Region 7- (Locked)
1- Surrey
2- Lewis & Clark
3- MLS

Region 8- (Locked)
#1- Divide County
#2- Ray/Powers Lake
#3- Kenmare/Bowbells/BC

Known First Round Matchups

Lamoure - Bye
New Salem - Bye
Hettinger/Scranton - Bye
Surrey - Bye
Divide County - Bye

Grant County/Flasher @ South Border
Napoleon @ Mott/Regent

Kenmare @ L&C
MLS @ Ray/Powers Lake

[WalkingStick]

MPCG isn't necessarily a lock...about 99.99% but it's not fully a lock yet.

MPCG beat FSHP by 16 (36-20)
FSHP beat H-N by 17+ (38-12)

If H-N were to beat MPCG by 17+ (yes a long shot but games have to be played and anything can happen); then isn't the 3-way tiebreak:
FSHP +1
H-N 0
MPCG -1

Thus giving FSHP the 2-seed and H-N via H2H the 3-seed?

EDIT: Even a 16 point win wouldn't save MPCG as FSHP would still win tiebreak and then H2H would take place.

[ChickenNuggets]

MPCG isn't necessarily a lock...about 99.99% but it's not fully a lock yet.

MPCG beat FSHP by 16 (36-20)
FSHP beat H-N by 17+ (38-12)

If H-N were to beat MPCG by 17+ (yes a long shot but games have to be played and anything can happen); then isn't the 3-way tiebreak:
FSHP +1
H-N 0
MPCG -1

Thus giving FSHP the 2-seed and H-N via H2H the 3-seed?

EDIT: Even a 16 point win wouldn't save MPCG as FSHP would still win tiebreak and then H2H would take place.

Nice Catch! I missed that one. So I guess technically if MPCG were to lose to H/N, then a FSHP win by any margin would give them the Region crown.

[WalkingStick]

MPCG isn't necessarily a lock...about 99.99% but it's not fully a lock yet.

MPCG beat FSHP by 16 (36-20)
FSHP beat H-N by 17+ (38-12)

If H-N were to beat MPCG by 17+ (yes a long shot but games have to be played and anything can happen); then isn't the 3-way tiebreak:
FSHP +1
H-N 0
MPCG -1

Thus giving FSHP the 2-seed and H-N via H2H the 3-seed?

EDIT: Even a 16 point win wouldn't save MPCG as FSHP would still win tiebreak and then H2H would take place.

Nice Catch! I missed that one. So I guess technically if MPCG were to lose to H/N, then a FSHP win by any margin would give them the Region crown.

when talking scenarios...it's likely the least likely one but it is there and could happen

[OKCfan]

If we're talking about unlikely scenarios but actually listing all of the possible ones, LaMoure has given up only 12 points all year, but they have not locked up the #1 seed in Region 1...
IF EMV beats LaMoure AND Hankinson beats W/L, both LaMoure & EMV would be the only 1 loss teams in the region, making EMV the 1, LaMoure the 2, and Hankinson the 3 seed going into playoffs. Very, very unlikely, but still not locked

[WalkingStick]

If we're talking about unlikely scenarios but actually listing all of the possible ones, LaMoure has given up only 12 points all year, but they have not locked up the #1 seed in Region 1...
IF EMV beats LaMoure AND Hankinson beats W/L, both LaMoure & EMV would be the only 1 loss teams in the region, making EMV the 1, LaMoure the 2, and Hankinson the 3 seed going into playoffs. Very, very unlikely, but still not locked

Well LaMoure-LM has clinched a playoff spot but maybe the seed as well; key is that EMV still has to win by 17+ though to setup a 0 across the board in point differential...what would be the tiebreak if they all end up with 0 for the point differential...Region Points Allowed or Region Point Differential, maybe. That may still give it to LLM, in any case, and if that's the case then it is 100% locked up.

[OKCfan]

According the NDHSAA website, LaMoure is 4-0 in the region, WL is 3-1, EMV is 3-1, & Hankinson is 2-2.
Therefore IF EMV beats LaMoure & Hankinson beats WL, the final standings would be LaMoure & EMV at 4-1, Hankinson & WL at 3-2. In 2 team ties, it simply goes to H2H and has nothing to do with point differential.
Once again, I understand the likelihood of this happening if slim, but that is the correct scenario (as long as the NDHSAA standings and scores are correct)

[WalkingStick]

According the NDHSAA website, LaMoure is 4-0 in the region, WL is 3-1, EMV is 3-1, & Hankinson is 2-2.
Therefore IF EMV beats LaMoure & Hankinson beats WL, the final standings would be LaMoure & EMV at 4-1, Hankinson & WL at 3-2. In 2 team ties, it simply goes to H2H and has nothing to do with point differential.
Once again, I understand the likelihood of this happening if slim, but that is the correct scenario (as long as the NDHSAA standings and scores are correct)

Yes that scenario is true...W-L would have to lose to Hankinson as well.

Essentially there are several scenarios in play for Region 1 BUT all have L-LM clinched into the playoffs just not clinched into a seed...your scenario is the ONLY one that allows for another team to be #1 other than L-LM

Note: I originally misread that you had W-L winning in your first message...I only read the EMV winning portion.

[WalkingStick]

Four Winds def. Benson County tonight 45-12 to clinch 3-seed in Region 3