Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

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Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby caserace0710 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:28 am

If I am missing any or there are incorrect scenarios, please don't hesitate to comment below.

UPDATE: Region 5 has been updated with corrections. Forgot that it goes head-to-head after point differential for some reason for that region.

* - denotes top two teams in region receive byes

REGION 1
  • Hankinson has already clinched the #1 seed and 1st round bye
  • Richland and Wyndmere/Lidgerwood have already clinched playoff berths
  • The winner of Richland vs. Wyndmere/Lidgerwood clinches the #2 seed (loser will be the #3 seed)
  • Hatton/Northwood clinches a playoff berth with a win OR a loss by 15 or fewer points
  • May-Port-CG clinches a playoff berth with a win AND a Finley-Sharon/Hope-Page loss
  • Finley-Sharon/Hope-Page clinches a playoff berth with a win AND a Hatton/Northwood loss by 16 or more points

REGION 2
  • Thompson has already clinched the #1 seed and 1st round bye
  • Cavalier and New Rockford-Sheyenne have already clinched playoff berths
  • The winner of Cavalier vs. New Rockford-Sheyenne clinches the #2 seed (loser will be the #3 seed)
  • Midway/Minto will clinch a playoff berth for the first time since 2000 (first in 9-man since 1992) with a win OR a loss by 2 or fewer points
  • North Star will clinch a playoff berth with a Midway/Minto loses by 3 or more points BUT Midway/Minto has to lose by 8 or fewer points
  • North Border clinches a playoff berth with a win by 9 or more points

REGION 3*
  • Shiloh Christian has already clinched the #1 seed and 1st round bye
  • Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter, Linton/HMB, and Kidder County have already clinched playoff berths
  • #2 seed and 1st round bye
    • Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter - a win OR a loss by 16 or fewer points (owns head-to-head over Linton/HMB)
    • Kidder County - a win AND a Linton/HMB loss (Linton/HMB owns head-to-head over Kidder County)
  • #3 seed
    • Linton/HMB - a win AND a Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter loss by 16 or fewer points
    • Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter - a loss AND a Linton/HMB loss
  • #4 seed
    • Linton/HMB - a loss AND a Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter loss
    • Kidder County - a loss
  • If Kidder County wins by 17 or more points AND Linton/HMB wins, then things get really fishy
    • Linton/HMB defeated Kidder County 36-16 in Week 4
    • Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter defeated Linton/HMB 34-14 last week
    • All three teams split their games against each other and have a combined point differential (17 PPG maximum) of 0, therefore according to NDHSAA rule: If all teams involved remain tied in point differential after Step 3, the names of tied teams will be placed in a hat and drawn 1st, 2nd, etc. until steps 1 and 2 can be used among remaining tied teams with head-to-head competition being used whenever possible. Thanks to The Schawb on how the draw works, here is how it would go down
      • If Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter is drawn as the #2 seed, Linton/HMB would be the #3 seed and Kidder County would be the #4 seed
      • If Linton/HMB is drawn as the #2 seed, Kidder County would be the #3 seed and Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter would be the #4 seed
      • If Kidder County is drawn as the #2 seed, Napoleon/Gackle-Streeter would be the #3 seed and Linton/HMB would be the #4 seed

REGION 4
  • North Prairie has already clinched the #1 seed and 1st round bye
  • St. John has already clinched the #2 seed
  • TGU has already clinched the #3 seed
  • The winner of Drake-Anamoose vs. Dunseith will clinch a playoff berth (loser is eliminated)

REGION 5*
  • New Salem/Glen Ullin has already clinched a playoff berth and guaranteed a 1st round bye
  • Hettinger/Scranton has already clinched a playoff berth
  • The winner of New Salem/Glen Ullin vs. Hettinger/Scranton clinches the #1 seed
    • Hettinger/Scranton would clinch a 1st round bye
    • New Salem/Glen Ullin would be the #2 seed if they lose
  • Hettinger/Scranton is assured the #2 seed and 1st round bye with a loss AND a Richardton-Taylor/Hebon loss (#3 seed if Richardton-Taylor/Hebron wins)
  • The winner of Richardton-Taylor/Hebron vs. Grant County/Flasher clinches a playoff berth (loser is eliminated)
    • Richardton-Taylor/Hebron clinches the #2 seed and 1st round bye with a win AND a Hettinger/Scranton loss
    • Richardton-Taylor/Hebron clinches the #3 seed with a win AND a New Salem/Glen Ullin loss
    • Grant County/Flasher clinches the #3 seed with a win AND a Mott-Regent loss
    • Grant County/Flasher clinches the #4 seed with a win AND a Bowman County loss
  • The winner of Mott-Regent vs. Bowman County clinches a playoff berth (loser is eliminated)
    • Bowman County would be the #4 seed regardless of the margin of victory over Mott-Regent
    • Mott-Regent would be the #3 seed with a Richardton-Taylor/Hebron loss
    • Mott-Regent would be the #4 seed with a Richardton-Taylor/Hebron win

REGION 6
  • Mohall-Lansford-Sherwood, Kenmare/Bowbells/Burke Central, and Divide County have already clinched playoff berths
  • Mohall-Lansford-Sherwood would be seeded as follows:
    • Clinches #1 seed and 1st round bye with a win OR a loss by 9 or fewer points
    • Clinches #2 seed with one of the following:
      • A loss by 10 or more points
      • A loss AND a Kenmare/Bowbells/BC loss
  • Divide County would be seeded as follows:
    • Clinches #1 seed and 1st round bye with:
      • A win by 10 or more points
      • A win AND a Kenmare/Bowbells/BC loss
    • Clinches the #2 seed with a loss AND a Kenmare/Bowbells/BC loss
    • Clinches the #3 seed with a loss AND a Kenmare/Bowbells/BC win
  • Kenmare/Bowbells/BC would be seeded as follows:
    • Clinches #2 seed with a win
    • Clinches #3 seed with a loss AND a Divide County win
  • Tioga clinches a playoff berth with one of the following:
    • A win
    • A loss by 11 or fewer points AND a Trenton/Trinity Christian win
  • Trenton/Trinity Christian clinches a playoff berth with a win AND a Tioga loss by 12 or more points
  • Parshall/White Shield clinches a playoff berth with a win AND a Trenton/Trinity Christian loss
Last edited by caserace0710 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:53 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby The Schwab » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:53 am

To answer your question for region 3. Once any team is awarded a seed they start back over at the first criteria so once the team is picked out of the hat for the 2 seed, then the three seed would be determined by head to head.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby Sniper » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:20 pm

[quote="caserace0710"]If I am missing any or there are incorrect scenarios, please don't hesitate to comment below.

* - denotes top two teams in region receive byes


REGION 5*
  • New Salem/Glen Ullin has already clinched a playoff berth and guaranteed a 1st round bye
  • Hettinger/Scranton has already clinched a playoff berth
  • The winner of New Salem/Glen Ullin vs. Hettinger/Scranton clinches the #1 seed
    • Hettinger/Scranton would clinch a 1st round bye
    • New Salem/Glen Ullin would be the #2 seed if they lose
  • Hettinger/Scranton is assured the #2 seed and 1st round bye with a loss AND a Richardton-Taylor/Hebon loss
  • Richardton-Taylor/Hebron clinches a playoff berth with one of the following:
    • Clinches the #2 seed and 1st round bye with a win AND a Hettinger/Scranton loss
    • Clinches the #3 seed with a win AND a New Salem/Glen Ullin loss
    • Clinches the #4 seed with a loss by 12 or fewer points AND a Bowman County loss
  • Richardton-Taylor/Hebron would be eliminated with one of the following:
    • A loss by 13 or more points
    • A loss AND a Bowman County win
  • The winner of Mott-Regent vs. Bowman County clinches a playoff berth (loser is eliminated)
    • Bowman County would be the #4 seed regardless of the margin of victory over Mott-Regent
    • Mott-Regent would be the #3 seed with a Richardton-Taylor/Hebron loss
    • Mott-Regent would be the #4 seed with a Richardton-Taylor/Hebron win
  • Grant County/Flasher clinches a playoff berth with one of the following (eliminated with a loss):
    • Clinches the #3 seed with a win AND a Mott-Regent loss
    • Clinches the #4 seed with a win by 13 or more points AND a Bowman County loss

I believe that this is wrong. Grant County-Flasher would clinch the #4 seed with a win over Richardton-Taylor-Hebron, the margin of victory does no matter in the scenario.
A Grant County-Flasher win and a Mott-Regent win would result in a three way tie. The three way tie is broken by point differential, then head to head for the remaining two teams. As of right now Mott-Regent is +9, Grant County-Flasher is -17, and Richardton-Taylor-Hebron is +8.

So if Grant County-Flasher (no matter the score) and Mott-Regent win: Mott-Regent receives #3 seed by winning point differential, and Grant County-Flasher would receive the #4 seed because of a head to head win over Richardton-Taylor-Hebron. Richardton-Taylor-Hebron is eliminated by a loss.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby caserace0710 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:33 pm

That is correct Sniper. I forgot about the point differential going to head-to-head after the point differential tiebreak is performed. Sometimes I overthink things as some of this stuff gets really ugly.

I've updated the scenarios above.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby Ball4Him » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:19 pm

Where did you find the stat for Midway-Minto playoff drought.
Just the other day I was wondering how long it's been since some of these teams have been to the playoffs
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby ndlionsfan » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:33 am

Dunseith was last to the playoffs in 1985. They had a chance to go last year but lost their final game to Drake. Should be an interesting game this year. I'm pulling for the Dragons and MM to make the playoffs.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 8:38 am

Ball4Him wrote:Where did you find the stat for Midway-Minto playoff drought.
Just the other day I was wondering how long it's been since some of these teams have been to the playoffs


click on the link under caserace's post...I believe that's his website link. Very informative site for HS Football fanatics.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby caserace0710 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:04 am

ndlionsfan wrote:Dunseith was last to the playoffs in 1985. They had a chance to go last year but lost their final game to Drake. Should be an interesting game this year. I'm pulling for the Dragons and MM to make the playoffs.
Ball4Him wrote:Where did you find the stat for Midway-Minto playoff drought.
Just the other day I was wondering how long it's been since some of these teams have been to the playoffs


I stand corrected, but the last time Midway/Minto made the playoffs was in 2000 not 1999 (as Midway/Fordville-Lankin/Minto). They lost to Langdon 32-22. But they did make the playoffs both those seasons. The last time they made the 9-man playoffs was in 1992, which they lost to Rolla (or Rolla/Rock Lake) 30-6.

Fun fact though, Midway was one of the first four teams to participate in the inaugural NDHSAA 9-man playoffs in 1975 (along with Towner, Berthold, and Napoleon). They got beat by Napoleon 56-15, who ended up winning the first 9-man state title.

1985 was Dunseith's only playoff appearance. They lost to eventual state champion Northwood 42-0 in the 1st round. Northwood at that time was a powerhouse and held the record for most consecutive 9-man wins in North Dakota (per NFHS record book) with 24 until Cavalier broke it with 27 last season.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby yellowjacket » Thu Oct 06, 2016 10:51 am

Doesn't New England have the record for most consecutive victories in 9-man, like from '94 to '97?
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby The Schwab » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:27 am

New England won 35 games in a row from 95-97 and from what I can find they were undefeated until the semi final in 1998 (missing a couple results) and in 1993 and 1994 they only lost in the playoffs. Giving them a for sure record from 1993-1997 of 55 and 2!! Crazy
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby caserace0710 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:08 pm

I forgot about New England! From what I am not missing, they lost a regular season game on 9/11/1992 to Elgin 30-22. They didn't lose a regular season game again until 9/3/1999 to Elgin-New Leipzig 36-28.

I'm missing games against Scranton, New Salem, and Mott in 1992. In 1998, I'm missing their Week 1 game/opponent, Richardton-Taylor, and Elgin-New Leipzig. If all those games are wins, then their streak would be for regular season games only would be 56 games.

The playoff games they lost in that span were against Towner (1992), Flasher/Carson (1993), Grenora (1994), Divide County (1998). Probably the best 9-man span in ND history. Too bad they don't have their own team anymore.

And you also got to remember that New England in 1989 and 1990 played in 11-man. They won the state title in 1988 in 9-man before they got bumped up.
Last edited by caserace0710 on Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby ND2PHX » Thu Oct 06, 2016 12:22 pm

caserace0710 wrote:I forgot about New England! From what I am not missing, they lost a regular season game on 9/11/1992 to Elgin 30-22. They didn't lose a regular season game again until 9/3/1999 to Elgin-New Leipzig 36-28.

I'm missing games against Scranton, New Salem, and Mott in 1992. In 1998, I'm missing their Week 1 game/opponent, Richardton-Taylor, and Elgin-New Leipzig. If all those games are wins, then their streak would be for regular season games only would be 56 games.

The playoff games they lost in that span were against Towner (1992), Flasher/Carson (1993), Grenora (1994), Divide County (1998). Probably the best 9-man span in ND history. Too bad they don't have their own team anymore.

And you also got to remember that New England in 1990 and 1991 played in 11-man. They won the state title in 1988 in 9-man before they got bumped up.

Weren't they combined with Regent during this time period? And if I recall correctly, wasn't this a little bit of a rub to Regent, since NE didn't want to add Regent's name to anything? Also, I believe many of their best players were from Regent. I could be entirely wrong though.
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Re: Playoff Scenarios - Week 8

Postby caserace0710 » Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:29 pm

They were with Regent and technically they were known as New England/Regent. At a time in the late 80's and early 90's they were known as New England/Regent/St. Mary's until New England St. Mary's closed. Regent left after I believe after the 2000 season and co-oped with Mott for one year before those two schools became Mott-Regent.

What I meant by "own team" was that they were the primary school and were not the secondary school in a co-op.

I think we could be getting off topic here :lol:. Speaking of long playoff droughts, it'll take some things to happen but if Trenton/Trinity Christian makes it (a win and a Tioga loss by 12 or more points) they'll be in the playoffs for the first time since 2003.
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