AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

The teams in Class AA.

AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby caserace0710 » Fri Oct 02, 2015 9:04 am

There are two teams this week that can clinch playoff berths tonight in AA. Here are the possible clinching scenarios:

Week 6 Playoff Clinching Scenarios

East Region
  • Wahpeton can clinch a playoff berth with a win AND both Grafton and Hillsboro/Central Valley lose
    Updated: After recalculating, Shanley CANNOT clinch this week as previously stated

West Region
  • Valley City can clinch a playoff berth with a win AND a Dickinson Trinity loss
    Note: The original Valley City scenario called for VC clinching with a win AND losses by both Watford City and Dickinson Trinity. Watford City lost last night to St. Mary's 34-6.
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby magic man » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:26 pm

Did Dickinson Trinity secure the #4 Seed out West, with their win last night?
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby caserace0710 » Fri Oct 16, 2015 3:39 pm

magic man wrote:Did Dickinson Trinity secure the #4 Seed out West, with their win last night?


Yes they did.

Beulah, Valley City, and St. Mary's clinched berths last week out west. Shanley, Wahpeton, and Central Cass also clinched out east.

Kindred will secure the final AA playoff spot with a win either against Wahpeton tonight or Enderlin/Maple Valley next week OR Hillsboro/Central Valley loses one of their final two games (against Lisbon or Shanley).
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby OKCfan » Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:37 am

caserace0710 wrote:
magic man wrote:Did Dickinson Trinity secure the #4 Seed out West, with their win last night?


Yes they did.

Beulah, Valley City, and St. Mary's clinched berths last week out west. Shanley, Wahpeton, and Central Cass also clinched out east.

Kindred will secure the final AA playoff spot with a win either against Wahpeton tonight or Enderlin/Maple Valley next week OR Hillsboro/Central Valley loses one of their final two games (against Lisbon or Shanley).


What if EMV beats Kindred & HCV loses to Shanley this weekend? Wouldn't they all be 3-4 then?
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 8:51 am

OKCfan wrote:
caserace0710 wrote:
magic man wrote:Did Dickinson Trinity secure the #4 Seed out West, with their win last night?


Yes they did.

Beulah, Valley City, and St. Mary's clinched berths last week out west. Shanley, Wahpeton, and Central Cass also clinched out east.

Kindred will secure the final AA playoff spot with a win either against Wahpeton tonight or Enderlin/Maple Valley next week OR Hillsboro/Central Valley loses one of their final two games (against Lisbon or Shanley).


What if EMV beats Kindred & HCV loses to Shanley this weekend? Wouldn't they all be 3-4 then?


Problem is...EMV has to win by 17+ just to force the next tiebreaker (point differential would be 0 then for all three teams; not sure what 3rd tiebreak is for 1-1 teams) but the chances for EMV is less then 1%...if even that good.
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby caserace0710 » Mon Oct 19, 2015 9:40 am

Run4Fun2009 wrote:
OKCfan wrote:
caserace0710 wrote:
magic man wrote:Did Dickinson Trinity secure the #4 Seed out West, with their win last night?


Yes they did.

Beulah, Valley City, and St. Mary's clinched berths last week out west. Shanley, Wahpeton, and Central Cass also clinched out east.

Kindred will secure the final AA playoff spot with a win either against Wahpeton tonight or Enderlin/Maple Valley next week OR Hillsboro/Central Valley loses one of their final two games (against Lisbon or Shanley).


What if EMV beats Kindred & HCV loses to Shanley this weekend? Wouldn't they all be 3-4 then?


Problem is...EMV has to win by 17+ just to force the next tiebreaker (point differential would be 0 then for all three teams; not sure what 3rd tiebreak is for 1-1 teams) but the chances for EMV is less then 1%...if even that good.


The next tiebreaker is point differential in all region games with a maximum of 17 points. Sadly, Enderlin/Maple Valley has no chance to make the playoffs. Kindred would win that tiebreaker with a -6 point differential in the region, EMV would have -26, and HCV would have -32.

The West Region gets a little odd.

Valley City wins:
#1 Valley City
#2 Beulah
#3 St. Mary's

St. Mary's wins by 11 or fewer:
#1 Beulah
#2 St. Mary's
#3 Valley City

St. Mary's wins by 12 or more:
#1 St. Mary's
#2 Valley City
#3 Beulah

I find it odd that the way the tiebreaker works, if Valley loses a close game to St. Mary's, then they'll end up a #3 seed. Consequently, Valley gets blown out, then they'll be the #2 seed...
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby cowboys8 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:49 am

caserace0710 wrote:
Run4Fun2009 wrote:
OKCfan wrote:
caserace0710 wrote:
magic man wrote:Did Dickinson Trinity secure the #4 Seed out West, with their win last night?


Yes they did.

Beulah, Valley City, and St. Mary's clinched berths last week out west. Shanley, Wahpeton, and Central Cass also clinched out east.

Kindred will secure the final AA playoff spot with a win either against Wahpeton tonight or Enderlin/Maple Valley next week OR Hillsboro/Central Valley loses one of their final two games (against Lisbon or Shanley).


What if EMV beats Kindred & HCV loses to Shanley this weekend? Wouldn't they all be 3-4 then?


Problem is...EMV has to win by 17+ just to force the next tiebreaker (point differential would be 0 then for all three teams; not sure what 3rd tiebreak is for 1-1 teams) but the chances for EMV is less then 1%...if even that good.


The next tiebreaker is point differential in all region games with a maximum of 17 points. Sadly, Enderlin/Maple Valley has no chance to make the playoffs. Kindred would win that tiebreaker with a -6 point differential in the region, EMV would have -26, and HCV would have -32.

The West Region gets a little odd.

Valley City wins:
#1 Valley City
#2 Beulah
#3 St. Mary's

St. Mary's wins by 11 or fewer:
#1 Beulah
#2 St. Mary's
#3 Valley City

St. Mary's wins by 12 or more:
#1 St. Mary's
#2 Valley City
#3 Beulah

I find it odd that the way the tiebreaker works, if Valley loses a close game to St. Mary's, then they'll end up a #3 seed. Consequently, Valley gets blown out, then they'll be the #2 seed...


How does this work exactly?
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:16 pm

cowboys8 wrote:
caserace0710 wrote:
Run4Fun2009 wrote:
OKCfan wrote:
caserace0710 wrote:
magic man wrote:Did Dickinson Trinity secure the #4 Seed out West, with their win last night?


Yes they did.

Beulah, Valley City, and St. Mary's clinched berths last week out west. Shanley, Wahpeton, and Central Cass also clinched out east.

Kindred will secure the final AA playoff spot with a win either against Wahpeton tonight or Enderlin/Maple Valley next week OR Hillsboro/Central Valley loses one of their final two games (against Lisbon or Shanley).


What if EMV beats Kindred & HCV loses to Shanley this weekend? Wouldn't they all be 3-4 then?


Problem is...EMV has to win by 17+ just to force the next tiebreaker (point differential would be 0 then for all three teams; not sure what 3rd tiebreak is for 1-1 teams) but the chances for EMV is less then 1%...if even that good.


The next tiebreaker is point differential in all region games with a maximum of 17 points. Sadly, Enderlin/Maple Valley has no chance to make the playoffs. Kindred would win that tiebreaker with a -6 point differential in the region, EMV would have -26, and HCV would have -32.

The West Region gets a little odd.

Valley City wins:
#1 Valley City
#2 Beulah
#3 St. Mary's

St. Mary's wins by 11 or fewer:
#1 Beulah
#2 St. Mary's
#3 Valley City

St. Mary's wins by 12 or more:
#1 St. Mary's
#2 Valley City
#3 Beulah

I find it odd that the way the tiebreaker works, if Valley loses a close game to St. Mary's, then they'll end up a #3 seed. Consequently, Valley gets blown out, then they'll be the #2 seed...


How does this work exactly?


Key matchups for final week (Region Records)
St. Mary's (5-1) @ Valley City (6-0)
Watford City (2-4) @ Beulah (5-1)

Key Results
Valley City def. Beulah 24-21 (+3)
Beulah def. Bis. St. Mary's 20-13 (+7)

**Dickinson Trinity is #4 Seed...already clinched**

Valley City & Beulah win:
1. Valley City via 7-0 region record
2. Beulah via 6-1 region record
3. St. Mary's via 5-2 region record

St. Mary's wins by 10 & Beulah win (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - pt diff: B +4; SM +3; VC -7
1. Beulah (6-1) wins 2nd tiebreak via Point Differential
2. St. Mary's (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
3. Valley City (6-1)

St. Mary's wins by 12 & Beulah win (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - pt diff: SM +5; B +4; VC -9
1. St. Mary's (6-1) wins 2nd tiebreak via Point Differential
2. Valley City (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
3. Beulah (6-1)

St. Mary's wins by 11 & Beulah win: (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1):
Pt diff: SM +4; B +4; VC -8 (St. Mary's & Beulah go back to H2H tiebreak)
1. Beulah (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
2. St. Mary's (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
3. Valley City (6-1)

IF Beulah loses then the winner of SM & VC is #1; loser is #2 and Beulah is #3.

ALSO caserace0710...I have Kindred's region Point Differential at 13 going into this week...if EMV were to win by 17 then it would be -4, EMV -26 & HCV -29 (speculating this week's score vs. Shanley of -17)...still correct that EMV has no chance to get into playoffs.
Last edited by Run4Fun2009 on Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Corrected a Scenario
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby caserace0710 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:40 am

Run4Fun2009 wrote:Key matchups for final week (Region Records)
St. Mary's (5-1) @ Valley City (6-0)
Watford City (2-4) @ Beulah (5-1)

Key Results
Valley City def. Beulah 24-21 (+3)
Beulah def. Bis. St. Mary's 20-13 (+7)

**Dickinson Trinity is #4 Seed...already clinched**

Valley City & Beulah win:
1. Valley City via 7-0 region record
2. Beulah via 6-1 region record
3. St. Mary's via 5-2 region record

St. Mary's wins by 10 & Beulah win (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - pt diff: B +4; SM +3; VC -7
1. Beulah (6-1) wins 2nd tiebreak via Point Differential
2. St. Mary's (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
3. Valley City (6-1)

St. Mary's wins by 12 & Beulah win (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - pt diff: SM +5; B +4; VC -9
1. St. Mary's (6-1) wins 2nd tiebreak via Point Differential
2. Valley City (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
3. Beulah (6-1)

St. Mary's wins by 11 & Beulah win: (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - Pt diff: SM +4; B +4; VC -8
**3rd Tiebreak is region Point Differential and that adds another minor wrinkle**


IF Beulah loses then the winner of SM & VC is #1; loser is #2 and Beulah is #3.

ALSO caserace0710...I have Kindred's region Point Differential at 13 going into this week...if EMV were to win by 17 then it would be -4, EMV -26 & HCV -29 (speculating this week's score vs. Shanley of -17)...still correct that EMV has no chance to get into playoffs.


  1. I thought that all three teams had to tie in point differential in order for the 3rd tiebreaker to take effect?
  2. I assumed that Enderlin/Maple Valley would win by 17 in that situation. And yes, Kindred is at +13 right now.
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Re: AA Playoff Clinching Scenarios

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 9:44 am

caserace0710 wrote:
Run4Fun2009 wrote:Key matchups for final week (Region Records)
St. Mary's (5-1) @ Valley City (6-0)
Watford City (2-4) @ Beulah (5-1)

Key Results
Valley City def. Beulah 24-21 (+3)
Beulah def. Bis. St. Mary's 20-13 (+7)

**Dickinson Trinity is #4 Seed...already clinched**

Valley City & Beulah win:
1. Valley City via 7-0 region record
2. Beulah via 6-1 region record
3. St. Mary's via 5-2 region record

St. Mary's wins by 10 & Beulah win (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - pt diff: B +4; SM +3; VC -7
1. Beulah (6-1) wins 2nd tiebreak via Point Differential
2. St. Mary's (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
3. Valley City (6-1)

St. Mary's wins by 12 & Beulah win (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - pt diff: SM +5; B +4; VC -9
1. St. Mary's (6-1) wins 2nd tiebreak via Point Differential
2. Valley City (6-1) wins 1st tiebreak via H2H tiebreak
3. Beulah (6-1)

St. Mary's wins by 11 & Beulah win: (leads to 3-way tie head-to-head at 1-1) - Pt diff: SM +4; B +4; VC -8
**3rd Tiebreak is region Point Differential and that adds another minor wrinkle**


IF Beulah loses then the winner of SM & VC is #1; loser is #2 and Beulah is #3.

ALSO caserace0710...I have Kindred's region Point Differential at 13 going into this week...if EMV were to win by 17 then it would be -4, EMV -26 & HCV -29 (speculating this week's score vs. Shanley of -17)...still correct that EMV has no chance to get into playoffs.


  1. I thought that all three teams had to tie in point differential in order for the 3rd tiebreaker to take effect?
  2. I assumed that Enderlin/Maple Valley would win by 17 in that situation. And yes, Kindred is at +13 right now.


Good catch on #1...you are right and I missed that..I'll update my post
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