Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

The teams in Class AA.

Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby PrepFBrules » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:57 pm

Anybody have it all figured out? Too early?
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 06, 2012 7:56 am

I'm going to take a crack at the west...

Team Region record Games remaining
Bishop Ryan 5-0 Rugby, St. Mary's
Beulah 4-1 Carrington, Trinity
Rugby 4-1 Ryan, Carrington
Trinity 3-2 Bottineau, Beulah
Carrington 3-2 Beulah, Rugby
St. Mary's 1-4 TMCHS, Ryan
Bottineau 0-5 Trinity, TMCHS
TMCHS 0-5 St. Mary's, Bottineau

Now that I look at this, we don't know much. Bottineau and TMCHS are out. St. Mary's is also out because they have head-to-head losses against Trinity & Carrington.

Meanwhile, Bishop Ryan has clinched a playoff spot - see below.

Bishop Ryan can clinch the #1 seed with a win over Rugby next week. The next four teams would be fighting for three playoff spots, and there are so many scenarios there that I'm not going to attempt to break them all down.

A Rugby win could force a 3 way tie at the top with Ryan and Beulah, unless Carrington knocks off Beulah and makes things even messier.

It's been a great year for AA football out west. TMCHS has struggled, but the remaining 7 teams are all capable of beating each other on a given night. We'll know a lot more a week from now.
Last edited by Bisonguy06 on Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 06, 2012 8:45 am

The one other thing I've been able to sort out is that any of the top 5 schools will clinch a playoff spot with a 5-2 conference record.

With Beulah playing Carrington and Trinity in the next two weeks, Beulah will either hand one of those two schools their 3rd conference loss or will fall to 4-3 itself. This means that 5-2 puts you in the top four and in the playoffs. A 4-3 record will leave your school either in a tiebreaker scenario (too many to list) or out of the playoffs altogether.

Ryan's in.
Rugby and Beulah are in with a win. Lose twice and you're in jeopardy.
For Trinity and Carrington, it's win-win-in.
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby old#63 » Sat Oct 06, 2012 3:57 pm

Here's the East and where everyone sits. I haven't worked out the math, but the CC vs. VC game next week will be a big one.

Shanley 4-1 Lisbon, GBC
Grafton 4-1 Kindred, VC
Wahpeton 3-2 GBC, Lisbon
Valley City 3-2 CC, Grafton
Central Cass 3-2 VC, Kindred
Lisbon 2-3 Shanley, Wahp
Griggs/Barnes 1-4 Wahp, Shanley
Kindred 0-5 Grafton, CC
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby NDHSSportsFan » Sun Oct 07, 2012 4:08 pm

This is what makes ND HS Football so interesting to watch. A lot of great teams, it's anyones guess right now.
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Mon Oct 08, 2012 12:12 am

after Friday's games are final...I will attempt to put every scenario on here for both regions
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Mighty-Mouse » Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:37 pm

Run4Fun2009 wrote:after Friday's games are final...I will attempt to put every scenario on here for both regions


Good luck on this one Run :D
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Bisonguy06 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 11:24 pm

Out west, Ryan has clinched the #1 seed, 2-5 are all up for grabs.
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 11:59 pm

CLASS AA - Through 10/15/12
East Region
x Shanley 6-1
x Grafton 6-1
x Wahpeton 5-2
x Valley City 4-3
# Central Cass 3-4
# Lisbon 2-5
# GBC 1-6
# Kindred 1-6

x - Clinched Playoff Berth
# - Eliminated From Playoff Contention

Week 9 Schedule
Griggs/Barnes County 15 @ Fargo Shanley 47
Lisbon 6 @ Wahpeton 48
Central Cass 22 @ Kindred 28
Valley City 12 @ Grafton 20

Scenario #1 - no upsets
Fargo Shanley (6-1) receives #1 Seed (def. Grafton 42-24)
Grafton (6-1) receives #2 Seed
Wahpeton (5-2) receives #3 Seed
Valley City (4-3) receives #4 Seed (def. Central Cass 40-14)
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby old#63 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:07 pm

Grafton loses to VC by 10 or more, and gets the 3 seed. Grafton loses to VC by 9 or less, and gets the 4 seed. That's an interesting wrinkle.
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Run4Fun2009 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:23 am

Record - Through 10/12/12
x Bishop Ryan 6-0
x Beulah 5-1
Carrington 4-3
Rugby 4-3
Trinity 4-2
# St. Mary's 2-4
# Bottineau 0-6
# TMCHS 0-6

x - Clinched Playoff Berth
# - Eliminated From Playoff Contention

St. Mary's (2-4) @ Bishop Ryan (6-0) (Wed.)
Beulah (5-1) @ Dickinson Trinity (4-2)
Carrington 23 @ Rugby 14
TMCHS (0-6) @ Bottineau (0-6)

For Scenario #1 -> Rugby (+12); Carrington (-1); DT (-11)
Scenario #1 - BR & Beulah win; DT loses; Carrington def. Rugby 7+ pts
**Carrington (+6); Rugby (+5); DT (-11)

Bishop Ryan (7-0) receives #1 Seed
Beulah (6-1) receives #2 Seed
Carrington (4-3) receives #3 Seed (Best Point Differential among 4-3 teams)
Rugby (4-3) receives #4 Seed (def. DT 45-33)
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:09 am

Run, great work as always. You're the MVP of ND prep sports.

The west has the potential for some scoreboard watching on Tuesday night. With Rugby kicking off at home vs. Carrington at 6:30 CST/5:30 MST and Trinity hosting Beulah at 8PM CST/7PM MST, the Rugby/Carrington game will wrap up by about halftime of the Beulah/Trinity game. Both teams could potentially alter their approach to the second half, based on the Rugby/Carrington result. Here's how it could work:

If Rugby wins: (See scenarios 1-4 above)
Rugby moves to 5-2 and Carrington at 3-4 is eliminated from the playoffs. Trinity clinches a playoff spot. Beulah and Trinity are now playing the second half for the #2 seed and a home game in the first round of the playoffs. Trinity has to win the game by 15+ points. Beulah can lose the game and retain the #2 seed as long as they hold the margin to 14 or less.

Consider this: You're Beulah, and you're down a touchdown late in the game. Do you run your no huddle/2 minute offense to try to win the game and clinch the #2 seed, or do you chew up the clock to preserve a 7 point loss (which also clinches the #2 seed)? Now you're Trinity. Do you call timeouts to get the ball back? Do you trot out your two minute offense to score another TD, even though you're up a score?

Let's try this: Carrington wins by 7+ points. Carrington and Rugby both finish at 4-3. Carrington clinches a playoff spot. Rugby roots for a Beulah win (see scenarios 5 & 7)

Finally, if Carrington wins by 6 points or fewer - Carrington and Rugby both finish 4-3. Trinity clinches a playoff spot (see scenarios 6 & 7). Rugby roots for Beulah, Carrington roots for Trinity to win.

Margin of victory no longer matters in the Beulah/Trinity game. The winner gets the #2 seed. The loser is still in the playoffs as either the 3 seed (Beulah) or the 4 seed (Trinity).

Clear as mud?
Last edited by Bisonguy06 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby Bisonguy06 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:59 am

So here are the approaches for each team:

Rugby - Win and you're in the playoffs. Lose and you'll need a Beulah win to qualify for the playoffs. Margin of victory does not matter. Margin of defeat could affect seeding (3 or 4), but Rugby has to play for the win to control its destiny.

Carrington - Play to win, but a win alone does not guarantee a playoff spot. A win of 7+ points clinches a playoff spot. Lose and your season is over. If Carrington holds a slim lead late in the game, they should look to increase the margin rather than sitting on a lead of 6 points or fewer. This is a double-edged sword though because going for the 7+ margin keeps time on the clock for Rugby to hold, drive for a score, clinch a playoff spot, and end Carrington's season.

Beulah - Already In the playoffs, playing for home field advantage in the first round. Play to win, as a win guarantees a #2 seed. Margin of victory does not matter. Margin of defeat could come into play if Rugby wins - if so, hold the margin of defeat under 15 points to clinch the 2 seed and a home playoff game.

Trinity - In the playoffs with a win, so take care of business. Rugby/Carrington result will dictate whether the game is a must-win to get in the playoffs, and that score will be in by around halftime. Margin of defeat makes no difference in any scenario. Margin of victory could come into play if Rugby wins. If Rugby wins, Trinity would already have wrapped up the 4 seed with a loss or a close victory, so might as well play for the 15+ margin if the opportunity presents itself.
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby prepfan14 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:26 pm

Carrington is in they just beat rugby by 9..... rugby coach tried being an a friend and kick a field goal with 1 sec left on the clock to knock them out of the playoffs but Taylor Skytland to clinch a spot CARRINGTON LOOKED GOOD
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Re: Playoffs: Who's in? Who's out?

Postby prepfan14 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:29 pm

Not friend *dear friend
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