Predictions for tonights Duke vs UNC 2/11/09

[WarmBlooded]

I got DUKE by 10+. Desperation game for Duke. Haven't played well as of late. Time to turn it up a notch. I hope the crazies are crazy tonight!!

God I love my pic!! He is a bleeder!

Go DUKE!!

[BballFan1307]

haha for one, i think anyone would bleed when one of the most athletic players in ncaa straight up punched you in the face. and for the prediction, well obviously i'm a UNC fan, but i'm going to try be as unbias as i can. I see this game happening two ways. Duke comes out on fire knocking down 3's all over the place and its a close game down to the end but UNC will stay in it with their athleticism and it will a 5 point game either team winning. The other scenario i could see happening is duke coming out cold and shooting about 20 percent from 3 and UNC winning by 20+. I mean i think its clear UNC has tons of talent, but it depends what teams show up.

[baseball18]

UNC 85 Duke 80

Too much Hansbrough, Ellington, and Green. Dukes PG problems will def. show in this game...

[WarmBlooded]

I was trying to be honest as well, if Danny Green (god I hate him) scores in the high teens or 20, UNC will win. It is a must win for DUKE. It just so happens it is against "that" team 8 miles away. Singler and Scheyer have to score. Duke struggles when the ball movement is slow and Henderson forces up jumpers. Henderson is at his best in transition...Dunks and hitting jumpers off of penetration and kick outs.

What is the over/under on how many off balanced, junk jump hook shots is Psycho T going to make tonight? probably too many for duke fans.

FYI it was a clean, legit, Jimmy "the Fly" Snuka ELBOW BOMB that barely cut him. haha!!

[BballFan1307]

hahaha ohhh thats what you call it. and as much as i love Hansbrough, he does try to do too much. He goes into a lot of triple teams and double teams that are unnecessary. But i do love his off balanced one armed shot put shot. Won't work in the NBA though. Actually ordered a Hansbrough autographed basketball today haha.

[BballFan1307]

well this is what i was expecting. DUke's on fire 65 percent and its still a close game, if they cool off look for unc to take off

[BballFan1307]

haha for one, i think anyone would bleed when one of the most athletic players in ncaa straight up punched you in the face. and for the prediction, well obviously i'm a UNC fan, but i'm going to try be as unbias as i can. I see this game happening two ways. Duke comes out on fire knocking down 3's all over the place and its a close game down to the end but UNC will stay in it with their athleticism and it will a 5 point game either team winning. The other scenario i could see happening is duke coming out cold and shooting about 20 percent from 3 and UNC winning by 20+. I mean i think its clear UNC has tons of talent, but it depends what teams show up.

haha my theory was almost perfect. except both scenarios happened. first half duke couldnt miss, second half they couldnt make. even when duke was on fire, unc stayed with them with their athleticism

[clutch24]

what was the final score of this game?

UNC won by 14 i believe. Not sure on the actual score.

[BballFan1307]

101-87 pretty sure. 44-52 duke at the half.

[WarmBlooded]

Lawson was a beast last night. nobody could guard him. Yet they never played off of him forcing him to shoot from the outside. Why guard a non shooter 45 feet from the basket? Especially when he is a below average shooter. Frasor and Thompson kept UNC in it the first half then the studs took over in the 2nd. Duke had just as good of shots in the 2nd but just didn't make em. Hats off to UNC. They are going to be a tough team to beat.

Why does Mcclure play? He is not a threat on offense and hid D isn't that great. UNC dorked him last night. It was 5 on 4 when he was in. Duke was playing its best when Paulus and Smith were in there at the same time. Duke has potential, if they shoot 65% everygame. You never know come tourney time!!

Go Duke, see you March 8

[The Schwab]

hahaha 65 percent every game.....good luck

[BballFan1307]

Lawson was a beast last night. nobody could guard him. Yet they never played off of him forcing him to shoot from the outside. Why guard a non shooter 45 feet from the basket? Especially when he is a below average shooter. Frasor and Thompson kept UNC in it the first half then the studs took over in the 2nd. Duke had just as good of shots in the 2nd but just didn't make em. Hats off to UNC. They are going to be a tough team to beat.

Why does Mcclure play? He is not a threat on offense and hid D isn't that great. UNC dorked him last night. It was 5 on 4 when he was in. Duke was playing its best when Paulus and Smith were in there at the same time. Duke has potential, if they shoot 65% everygame. You never know come tourney time!!

Go Duke, see you March 8

I bet they didn't play off of him because he is a good shooter. Non shooter ? how do you figure? yeah, he's really below average shooting 48 percent from 3 point range. i don't know what you think average shooting is?

[WarmBlooded]

48%....wow he is up 10-12% from his last 2 years. After scoring 16 points off of 8 layups, I would of played off of him a bit more and see if he could of beat me with his career average of 36% 3-pt shooting. Lawson shooting 3's is not the 1st option of their offense. Over his career, counting last nights game, he has shot 776 two point shots. Compare to 239 three point shots. 94 games played and do the math that is 8 two pt shots and 2.5 three point shots per game. So if you play off of him he is not going to start chucking up 3's. Because on average 6 to 7 times out of 10 he shoots 3's he misses, which gives Duke that many more possessions. UNC's offense and Lawson are good when he is driving to the lane and getting layups, fouled, or kicking it out for 3's. That is way too many stats and I apologize for that.

Moral of the story, UNC has a lot of weapons and they will need to play below average for most teams to beat them.

[baseball]

Sure Lawson shooting 3s isnt their first option, but its far from their last. When a guy is shooting 48% from 3 after 24 games i would say hes shooting the ball pretty well. not necessarily say "o his career percentage has to kick in sometime here"

Lawson is a below average shooter at 39.3% for his career, while Ellington is a 38.8% career shooter from 3 and hes considered one of the best shooters in the country. anyone see a problem with that? if you wanna go by career numbers why do people face guard Ellington and sag off Lawson?

[BballFan1307]

yeah, i dont get why people praise ellington so much. i don't even see him being that good in the NBA. i really hope he comes back next year. hes too streaky. some games he's cold as heck other games hes on fire,b ut that doesnt happen often. and warmblooded, who cares what lawson's career percentage is. this is now. his percentage being higher means he's practiced and is a better shooter now, so you cant say , hes shooting 38 percent in his career so we can sag off... he's gotten better.

[WarmBlooded]

I was just stating my reasoning for not guarding him 40 feet from the floor. Great, that he has improved on his shot. IMO the difference in those 2 players is that Lawson gets a lot more open, no hands in the face shots from 3. Because of guys going under ball screens or his defender doubling down on the posts. Where Ellingtion is running off screens, guys drapped all over him and he shoots contested shots. Ellington's defender isn't going to leave him to double down. Both great college players...should be solid, not all star, pro players. Both are Jr's.

UNC's two loses this year.......Lawson is 7 for 25 from 2's and 1 for 7 from 3's. I will take my chances and sag off of him, attempting (key word, attempt) to stop the drive. He is so strong. His guns are as big as Paulus's thighs.

[The Schwab]

I was just stating my reasoning for not guarding him 40 feet from the floor. Great, that he has improved on his shot. IMO the difference in those 2 players is that Lawson gets a lot more open, no hands in the face shots from 3. Because of guys going under ball screens or his defender doubling down on the posts. Where Ellingtion is running off screens, guys drapped all over him and he shoots contested shots. Ellington's defender isn't going to leave him to double down. Both great college players...should be solid, not all star, pro players. Both are Jr's.

UNC's two loses this year.......Lawson is 7 for 25 from 2's and 1 for 7 from 3's. I will take my chances and sag off of him, attempting (key word, attempt) to stop the drive. He is so strong. His guns are as big as Paulus's thighs.

I can guarantee you that anyone who guards him is told without question to Trail screens, and if by some chance they have him go under ball screens, the other guy is instructed to SHOW HARD!. And I highly doubt opposing coaches have his defender dig off of him on post touches.

[baseball]

ask anyone who konws anything aobut basketball. would you rather make the opposing team start their offense 40 feet away from the basket or 22 feet? i know im not coach k or anyone coaching d1 but i would rather have my team pick up lawson further away from the hoop then wait for him inside the 3 point line and let him get a head start when driving.

[WarmBlooded]

True, I dont think I would be that extreme where I have on foot in the lane and just sit there waiting for him. Do whatever you gotta do to start the defensive possession on him but once he gets into range of being a threat, then I would give him a little more cushion. Sooner or later somebody on Duke's team has to step up, be a D-1 athlete and play some defense. And they just didn't do that last night.

[baseball]

i dont tihnk i would hold it against duke...if you can name one person in college thats quick enough laterally to keep lawson in front of him i would love to see it.

[WarmBlooded]

very true

[BballFan1307]

Miami tried the play off of Lawson idea tonight, he was at about 50 percent, almost didn't play and knocked down 5 of 8 3's for 21 points.

[baseball]

Miami tried the play off of Lawson idea tonight, he was at about 50 percent, almost didn't play and knocked down 5 of 8 3's for 21 points.

career percentage is gonna kick in now...he'll go 0-20 now right? haha

[BballFan1307]

hahaha yeah, you have to figure since he didnt shoot well as a freshman that he will start getting cold soon. ;P