Going against conventional thinking

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Going against conventional thinking

Postby Flip » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:07 pm

Instead of completely derailing the Mr. Basketball thread I thought I'd start a new thread.

The Schwab wrote:
Flip wrote:
ndlionsfan wrote:ok attempts may be up, but are percentages? I would be very surprised if they were

I figured out too, for the Big 12 teams. I left that sheet at school, but the percentages were similar. 3 pt attempts up because coaches know it makes their teams better. I'm not saying a team should shoot all 3 pointers.

It isn't just basketball either. Coaches are beginning to go for it more on 4th down. Managers are starting to bat their best hitters 2nd and not 3rd.


That's a whole different idea totally haha! I'm part of the group that thinks you bat your best hitter lead off!

I read in two different publications (SI and ESPN I think) last year that your best batter should hit 2nd and not 3rd. Both articles were basically saying Dusty Baker was an idiot for batting Votto 3rd and not 2nd. Part of thinking was you get your best better more at bats throughout the season and in the Reds case they were batting a pretty bad batter 2nd. To the Schwab's comment about batting your best batter 1st. You want a batter with a high on base percentage and maybe not much power batting first because he's going to get a lot of at bats with no body on base since he bats after the bottom of the order.

There's more in other sports that I started to elude to in previous posts about shooting more 3 pointers in basketball and going for it more on 4th down in football.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby The Schwab » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:11 pm

I've looked at some research that found the 3rd hitter bats with on average 60 more guys on base per season then the 1st guy. In high school I'm in favor of having my best hitter 1, best bunter/right field tendency guy 2nd and 2nd best hitter 3rd and so on.

Flip- Where do you stand on having your pitcher hit 8th in the National League as compared to 9th.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby Flip » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:27 pm

The Schwab wrote:I've looked at some research that found the 3rd hitter bats with on average 60 more guys on base per season then the 1st guy. In high school I'm in favor of having my best hitter 1, best bunter/right field tendency guy 2nd and 2nd best hitter 3rd and so on.

Bolded falls into conventional thinking IMO. Sacrifice bunts are good in the 9th inning of a tie game, but probably shouldn't ever be done in the first 6 innings of a game, except for horrible batters, like pitchers. Early in games you should be playing for big innings, which means you don't sacrifice outs.

I remember listening to a section championship game in MN last year and radio guy kept mentioning how Blackduck was averaging 10+ runs a game or something, but in the game they tried like 4 sacrifice bunts and I just laughed that a team with so much offensive power would be trying for 1 run so often.

Flip- Where do you stand on having your pitcher hit 8th in the National League as compared to 9th.

I've never read anything on that before, but it seems stupid to me. What is the theory for doing it?
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby The Schwab » Tue Mar 18, 2014 4:38 pm

The Braves tried to do it for a while so did another team, can't remember who it was off the top of my head, said it gives the top of the order guys more of a chance to hit with a guy on base. Bill James actually found statistically that you will score around 2 more runs a season doing it.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby Flip » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:19 pm

I thought the Cardinals did it too, but I could be wrong.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby The Schwab » Tue Mar 18, 2014 5:35 pm

You're right, it was the Cards and the Brewers, not the Braves
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby Indy5 » Wed Mar 19, 2014 7:34 pm

Flip wrote:
The Schwab wrote:I've looked at some research that found the 3rd hitter bats with on average 60 more guys on base per season then the 1st guy. In high school I'm in favor of having my best hitter 1, best bunter/right field tendency guy 2nd and 2nd best hitter 3rd and so on.

Bolded falls into conventional thinking IMO. Sacrifice bunts are good in the 9th inning of a tie game, but probably shouldn't ever be done in the first 6 innings of a game, except for horrible batters, like pitchers. Early in games you should be playing for big innings, which means you don't sacrifice outs.

I remember listening to a section championship game in MN last year and radio guy kept mentioning how Blackduck was averaging 10+ runs a game or something, but in the game they tried like 4 sacrifice bunts and I just laughed that a team with so much offensive power would be trying for 1 run so often.

Reminds me of Moneyball where Brad Pitt tells them they'll never bunt. And the quote I like about stealing. "I pay you to get on first base, not get thrown out a 2nd"
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby bison football73 » Sun Mar 23, 2014 2:32 pm

In my opinion, bunting early gives you more of a chance to win. if you bunt and those guys on base score, you already have runs before the starting pitcher can get into his grove in the later innings. Personally I like a guy with the most patience and a good baserunner to lead off with a good bunter second. with my best hitters at 3 and 4. at younger ages I like my weaker hitters at 6, 7, and 8, with the guy with the second best patience at 9.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby Flip » Sun Mar 23, 2014 11:30 pm

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2013/8/7 ... e-sac-bunt

The run expectancy of a runner on first base with none out is approximately 0.86 runs. The expected number of runs with a runner on second base and one out is 0.68 runs. So by bunting, you've reduced your run expectancy by 0.18 runs. It's the same for bunting runners from 1st and 2nd over to 2nd and 3rd: you've reduced your run expectancy from 1.47 to 1.36, again reducing your expectancy by 0.11 runs. In other words, bunting actually slightly hurts your chances of scoring runs.
...

...a bunt with runners on 1st and 2nd in a very close game might be a net positive in and of itself, but if you've got a legitimate chance of getting on anyway, it might make a lot of sense. A sacrifice bunt still hurts your chances of having a big inning, but in a close game, it might actually have some legitimate utility. Maybe I owe that dad in the barbershop a (very small) apology.


Basically, a lot of what I said earlier.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby bison football73 » Mon Mar 24, 2014 12:36 am

One thing that article didn't have any kind of statistics on is how often that runner on second scores compared to having a big inning. Personally I feel like you score that run after bunting more often than having a big inning. yes your chances of having a big inning is reduced by bunting, but I feel your chances are better to score a run with that runner in scoring position than having a big inning. with that runner on first your chances of hitting into a double play increase or you hit a fly ball and the runner can't advance. the article says nothing about the chances of scoring with a runner on first with one out. I assume it to be less than a runner at second with one out. Even in Moneyball they say, at the end, something like, you can't just look at statistics, its a combination. you have to bunt and steal and take the extra base.

Don't get me wrong, Moneyball was a good movie I just didn't agree with the thinking.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby Flip » Mon Mar 24, 2014 2:33 am

bison football73 wrote:One thing that article didn't have any kind of statistics on is how often that runner on second scores compared to having a big inning.

I think the first two tables show that.

Personally I feel like you score that run after bunting more often than having a big inning.

The article says exactly that, but your run expectancy goes down.

Like in football if it's 4th and goal from the 1 yard line you're more likely to score points by kicking the FG than trying for the TD, but expected points is almost certainty higher going for the TD.

Don't get me wrong, Moneyball was a good movie I just didn't agree with the thinking.

I've never seen it.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby Flip » Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:41 am

Flip wrote:I read in two different publications (SI and ESPN I think) last year that your best batter should hit 2nd and not 3rd. Both articles were basically saying Dusty Baker was an idiot for batting Votto 3rd and not 2nd.

Happened to catch the start of the Reds/Pirates game yesterday and noticed with a new manager Votto is batting 2nd.
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby The Schwab » Tue Apr 22, 2014 11:45 am

Oh I completely see where people are coming from when they do it, but I'm more of a baseball traditionalist and not really open to change haha
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Re: Going against conventional thinking

Postby Flip » Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:08 pm

Makes no sense to me why Mauer isn't batting leadoff.
1) Outside of Sano he's going to get on base more than anyone.
2) He has little power, which is ok batting leadoff because generally there won't be many players on base.
3) building off of #2, it's hard to hit into a double play without anyone on base.
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